Then Angels always provide a lot of save opportunities but will Fuentes be able to convert all of them in 2010?

Fantasybaseball.com defines a “bust” as a player who will not produce the statistics that match his average draft position.  No other position has the ability to lose their value faster than relievers.  They can be one of the more valuable players on your roster one week and then lose their save opportunities and be on waivers the next week.  Take a look at some relievers to think twice about in 2010.

Mark Schruender

Brian Fuentes. We can’t pick Brad Lidge two years in a row? Sigh. Well Fuentes had a ridiculous amount of saves for a guy with a below average WHIP and a FIP in the mid 4s. His average fastball lost 1.6 MPH in velocity and his control was worse as his walk rate was the highest it’s been since 2005. Despite the fact that he’s being paid $9 million don’t be surprised if someone else is getting saves in the OC by season’s end.

Ed Lilly

Brad Lidge is coming off a terrible season and the surprise knee surgery in mid- January doesn’t help his attempt for a comeback season. He will get most of the season to prove he is back but though you will get saves he will hurt you with his ERA and he has been showing signs of wildness. Draft with care.

Eric Homola

Can you believe that George Sherrill was one of the best relief pitchers in 2009? He was, but I still don’t believe it. A 1.70 era was impressive. But, I will say he goes back to his mean.  Also, his opportunities for saves are just about gone now that he is in L.A.

Pat Mayo

Brian Fuentes didn’t exactly light the world on fire in his first year in Anaheim. He did lead the league in saves with 48, but his ERA and WHIP got out of control. I don’t expect the Angles to be nearly as good as last year with their loss of talent and the improvement of the divisions other teams, so look for his opportunities to diminish. The signing of Fernando Rodney would lead me to believe that if Fuentes may not have the long leash he did in 2009.

Fred Zinkie

Francisco Cordero has gotten away with a high WHIP for four of the last five years.  Outside of his one full season in Milwaukee, he has had a WHIP over 1.30 in all of those seasons.  That is an usually high WHIP for a closer and a sign that he is putting too many men on base to consistently finish off his save opportunity.  But, he has managed to dance around those problems by striking out more than a batter per inning from 2005-2008, allowing him to get the big strikeout when he needed to get out of a jam.  In 2009 his strikeout rate fell significantly for the first time.  I think he saved 39 games last year because he got lucky.  His Strand Percentage was 84%, which is too high for him to maintain for a second year.  And, he allowed an unusually low number of home runs in 2009, despite pitching in a park that is very friendly for home run hitters.  I don’t think his high strikeout total is coming back and if his S% and HR/F% go back to normal we will be looking at a 4.00+ ERA and a possible role reduction.
Jeremy Tiermini

A look at each team’s current closer shows that every one of them comes with questions.  Can Broxton repeat what he did last season?  Is this the year Mariano starts to lose it?  Will Heath Bell be traded to a playoff team for bullpen depth?  The top closer that I have the biggest concern about is Jonathan Papelbon.  As a Yankees fan, I was scared as hell when he came into games and had that sneer on his face.  The stare alone was enough to get some guys out.  There have been some warning signs the last few seasons, with his WHIP rising from 0.77 in 2007, to 0.95 in 2008 and, in 2009, to 1.14.  His walks went from 8 in 2008 to 24 last season and there has been discussion about the decreased velocity on his slider, which makes it easier for hitters to pick up.  He seems to constantly be adjusting his mechanics to compensate for shoulder issues, which could be the cause of the decreased velocity and the control issues.  His annual salary is going up every season and he is content to sign one-year contracts; however, with Daniel Bard waiting in the wings, the Red Sox don’t need to spend that much on their closer.  It would not surprise me to see the Red Sox deal him this season for a bat and a younger MR or to see Papelbon on the DL a few times this season.  I think he slips below 30 saves, a 1.20 WHIP and an ERA that actually goes above 3.00.  The one thing that has not suffered is his strikeouts, so he should still provide 75-80 K’s, unless his slider continues to lose velocity.