Avoid Like The Plague!

03/09/2010 11:52 AM -  Fred Zinkie

With so much attention being focused on who you should be thinking about, let’s take a look at who you might want to consider staying away from in 2010. #5: OF Jason Bay, New York Mets As a big Red Sox fan and having a year plus to watch Bay show off his skills, I cannot in good conscience recommend you picking up Bay in your draft unless you are desperate, are fairly confident you could use him as actual trade bait, or are in a deep NL-Only league. The concerns about Bay are simple to me: Bay taking a hack He can’t hit breaking balls or off/speed stuff. You could tell him before the pitch a slider was coming and he’d still whiff. Bay set a career-high 162 strikeouts with the Sawx in 2009, and frankly, going to a lineup that’s a level or two below what they have going on in Boston, I can’t see Bay drawing 90+ walks again…though I do like his potential to whiff over 150 times. Did I mention he’s moving from slugger-friendly Fenway Park (where Bay hit a sparkling .273/.406/.531, with 15 home runs and 18 of his 29 doubles) to the pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field? A former Pirate, Bay has some experience handling a pitchers’ ballpark, and it wasn’t friendly. In 2007, Bay hit .259 with 7 of his 21 home runs at PNC, and during his time with the Pirates, the majority of his home runs came on the road (ex: in 2005, Bay hit just 9 of his 34 homers at home). Bottom line: because of my personal concerns over Bay, who is very streaky, going to a weaker offensive team, and is primarily a fastball-hitter who doesn’t hit well for power in pitcher-friendly stadiums, so I don’t see him performing at optimal levels in many hitting categories. In my opinion, it’s nothing short of delusional to expect another 100+ Run, 30+ Home Run season out of Bay. I’ll pass.

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