Boston Gambles On Beltre

01/05/2010 6:01 AM -  Fred Zinkie

January 5, 2010
By: Fred Zinkie

The Red Sox continue to be aggressive this season, largely with a “Plan B” approach.  They passed on trading for Roy Halladay and settled for a good (but lesser) pitcher in John Lackey.  Then they passed on signing a big bat like Jason Bay or Matt Holliday and instead signed Mike Cameron and just yesterday added Adrian Beltre.  The Red Sox now appear to have settled on a lineup for next season.  How will the Beltre signing affect fantasy values in Boston in 2010?

Adrian Beltre – After his contract-driven explosion in L.A. in 2004, he pretty much settled into a mediocre offensive pattern in Seattle.  From 2005-2008 he hovered around 25 home runs, 85-90 RBIs and a .270 average just about every year.  In 2009 injuries caused him to miss a lot of time and play poorly when he was active.  So, this signing carries some risk for Boston.  However, Beltre is one of the best defensive 3B in the game and at 30 years old he is plenty young enough to bounce back at the plate.  Fantasy owners should expect a bounce back season in 2010, especially with Boston’s talented lineup around him.  Hitting in a more offensive home park won’t hurt either.  The second year of his deal is a player option so it is obvious what Beltre is thinking right now – have one good all-around season on a big stage in Boston and then hit the free agent market again next year and look for a bigger multi-year deal.  He makes for a solid fantasy pick this year once the top 3B are gone.

Mike Lowell – The Beltre signing sealed Lowell’s ticket out of town.  With the Red Sox planning on using Victor Martinez some days to back up Kevin Youkilis at 1B, the only at-bats Lowell would currently get would be as a backup for Beltre and a pinch hitter.  So, he has very little fantasy value while he is with Boston.  He will likely be traded this winter, although Boston may have to wait until he recovers from thumb surgery to make it official.  If healthy, he is still capable of hitting well when he gets playing time.  He has already been rumored in a deal to the Mets, which would be good for his chances of getting playing time.  A deal to Texas could also be re-visited.

Boston Pitchers – Being a Red Sox pitcher got a little bit easier this off-season.  Beltre will be a big upgrade over Lowell/Youkilis at 3B.  Mike Cameron will be a better LF than Jason Bay.  Marco Scutaro is a good defensive SS and even though he isn’t better than Alex Gonzalez, he ensures that Boston will have a defensive asset at each spot in the infield.  Right now it looks like Boston’s only defensive weakness will be stopping the running game on days when Jason Varitek catches.  There shouldn’t be too many of those.

Boston’s Batting Order – Now that the dust seems to have settled in Boston, it is worth taking a minute to try to project one of the stronger batting orders in baseball.  So, I will take my shot:

1. Ellsbury – I know that Scutaro really thrived in this spot for Toronto last year but Ellsbury’s speed and long-term potential as a leadoff hitter should get him this job.
2. Pedroia – He owns this spot in Boston and his ability to make contact makes him perfect for the role.
3. Martinez – Batting third for Boston gives him more offensive potential than many people realize.  A great value at catcher.  At this spot he could rival Joe Mauer’s value. Don’t believe me?  Think about it this way – Mauer will have the better average but assuming that he regresses in home runs, both of these players could settle in the 20-25 home run range.  Batting around so many quality hitters, Martinez could score as many runs as Mauer and drive in more of them (Martinez already has three seasons with more than 107 RBIs).  If Mauer is a first round pick in 2010 then Martinez is a second round pick.
4. Youkilis – He has settled into this spot in Boston even though he isn’t your classic cleanup hitter.
5. Beltre – This would be a great spot for him to fall.  Lots of RBI and run scoring opportunities.
6. Ortiz – The Red Sox could give him another chance in the middle of the order but it is doubtful at this point.
7. Drew – His all-around hitting ability probably puts him ahead of Cameron.
8. Cameron – He would have some power for them from this spot and even though he doesn’t steal a lot he still runs the bases well.
9. Scutaro – He becomes like a second leadoff hitter – trying to start rallies from the bottom of the order.

It certainly is a deep lineup, even if it does lack any of the truly elite hitters in baseball.