By The Numbers

06/16/2010 6:50 AM -  Lane Rizzardini

They did it! The Blackhawks finally got their Stanley Cup in one of the more bizarre endings you’ll see in a championship game. Did anyone other than Patrick Kane know that puck went in? Good for the Philly fans for staying. For how much flak they catch for being ruthless they all stayed to respect the Blackhawks, one of the NHL’s best traditions.

But what a game, what a season, heck what a career some of these young guys have had already. I’m the same age as Jonathan Toews, who now has a Gold Medal, a Conn Smythe, a Stanley Cup, and a lucrative 10-year deal with an Original Six professional hockey team. I can barely get a job interview. Patrick Kane just scored the winning goal in his first Stanley Cup and he wasn’t allowed to order a beer year ago!

My only regret is that they didn’t win it at home. The city was wild enough on a Wednesday during an away game, imagine what clinching on a Friday at home would have been. Oh well, guess we’ll have to wait for the Cubs to win the World Series before we get another Chicago Fire.

Oh yea, and there were some baseball games this week.

63% – Combined stolen base success rate for Elvis Andrus and Julio Borbon, which has led to Ron Washington’s decision to limit their attempts until they can improve their technique. It’s a huge blow to each of their values, though Borbon didn’t have much anyway.

I’m especially concerned about Andrus because not only has his batting average dipped in recent weeks, he stopped drawing walks. His BB:K rate has been an atrocious 5:14 so far in June, lowering his OBP to .377, down from his high of .431 just a month ago.

Let’s hope it’s simply a case of a young player needing to make an adjustment and not a trend that will continue.

.226 – Batting average over the past 25 games for Ian Stewart, another young player poised for a breakout season who has fallen off the wagon in recent weeks. How close this is to his 2009 average (.228) is unsettling to say the least, but you knew you were getting somewhat of a batting average liability with him.

What’s more alarming is while the batting average is regressing to the norm, his power numbers have remained stagnant, with only one home run over that 25 game span. Looking at the numbers the culprit seems to be a severely decreased fly ball rate, which has turned into a bloated line drive rate (25%). While this may sound great, it clearly hasn’t helped him recently. Plus, this number is unsustainable, so hopefully the line drives will turn back into fly balls and not grounders. I’m benching him until further notice.

9 – Innings pitched by Zack Greinke in his last start, finally securing that ever elusive second win. We can all breathe a little easier now, the Zack Attack is back. He struck out 12 batters and walked zero, an unbelievable performance despite two solo jacks allowed to Joey Votto. Reportedly the performance was a result of an “adjustment”, always music to a fantasy owner’s ears and bodes well for future production.

Nevertheless, his struggles with keeping the ball in the park will keep him from repeating last year’s Cy Young numbers, but I’d still bet on a 3.3 ERA and over 200 K’s at the end of the season.

3 – runs given up by Tommy Hunter over his first 15 innings of work since starting the season on the DL. This is a small sample size but still noteworthy considering his first outing was a five hit complete game. You also have to love the 1.8 BB/9 ratio, the rising groundball rate, and the dramatically improved movement on his curveball, which he’s been using 11% more than he did last year.

Again, it’s a bit early to be predicting a huge impact from the young righty, but he should be on everyone’s watch lists.

2 – Complete game shut outs for Matt Cain, both shockingly coming within a three-game span. He’s been unbelievable this season, compiling a 2.05 ERA and 65 K’s over 92.1 innings, good for a spot at #17 on Yahoo’s overall ratings, much higher than his twice-Cy Younged teammate Big Time Timmy Jim Lincecum.

This flying start is a bit hard to call. His improving track record suggests an ERA in the 2.6 range and 170 strike outs is not out of the question. But there are signs that a rough patch is coming in the near future, starting with his 4.53 xFIP and .241 BaBIP. I’m also wary of his uncharacteristically low home run to fly ball rate (3.2%), especially considering his fly ball rate has risen 5% from last season.

Obviously you shouldn’t be giving this guy away; I still think he will be a top 15 pitcher, but it might be worth shopping him around to see what you can get because he surely won’t be top five at the end of the season.

.293 – Batting average since May 16^th for Chone Figgins, who has shown clear signs of life over the past month. He also drew nearly a 1:1 BB:K rate. I guess I don’t really have much to say about it other than pick him up if anyone jumped ship when he was batting .188. He should come back to career norms in all averages and will continue to be a reliable base stealer, but his runs will probably suffer in that weak Mariners’ offense.

8.25 – ERA for Ricky Nolasco over his last five starts, his most recent being a 2.1 inning stinker in which he gave up five runs before being mercifully pulled. The strike outs are the most alarming part, losing three K’s per nine innings from last season. But there are good signs, such as a 4.27 xFIP, an improved BB/9 rate, and a much lower line drive rate.

It looks like the fanciful dreams of ace value from Nolasco may never materialize, or at least not this season. He will still show flashes of that brilliance from time to time but unless he goes back and fixes something (again) he will always be a roller coaster SP2.

.236 – Batting average in the last 34 games for Kosuke Fukudome, who has yet again been awful since April. It’s almost ridiculous how predictable he’s become, as his batting average high point was literally on May 1^st, and since then has slid 83 points. I don’t understand how a professional baseball player can forget how to hit the ball a month into the season. Is it the heat? Does he get tired easily?

I don’t think anyone knows, and the Cubs have apparently given up trying as he is reportedly on the trading block, presumably to give Tyler Colvin a full time job. I wouldn’t be too hopeful for a resurgence no matter where he is.

16.76 – Carlos Marmol’s strike out rate per nine innings. That’s a truly mind-boggling number, though we always knew he had a nasty slider that could put any hitter out when it was on. Now he’s apparently locating it, shaving a full 2.5 walks off his BB/9 ratio. People have been waiting for this guy to explode like this for a while now, and we may be seeing the beginning of a truly special closing career. I’m still not sure I’ll ever be able to watch him without my heart racing though.

.222 – Batting average for Mark Reynolds this season, he of the titanium toothpick. Like Stewart, we knew Reynolds wasn’t exactly Ichiro but this is getting ugly. He’s still mashing like normal (on pace for 40 dingers) but he’s also striking out like normal, to the tune of 228 to end the season if he continues like this. That would be a record high. Yes, even for Mark Reynolds.

He also hasn’t been stealing bases, something that helped to offset the woeful average. His moderately low BaBIP (.277) indicates his average could come up a bit but when you strike out a lot and don’t hit line drives (11%) you probably aren’t going to reach first base often. Might be time to figure out how much his name is worth to the rest of the managers in your league.

That’s all for now. Enjoy your week everyone.