By The Numbers

08/25/2010 6:52 AM -  Lane Rizzardini

What can I say, readers? For most of us it’s the second to last week of the regular season. By now your rosters probably aren’t changing too much minus the mad scramble for one of the few gems left on the waiver wire. There’s no more tricks to try, no more lessons to learn. For those on the playoff bubble it’s an agonizing day-to-day process hoping and praying your team pulls out that one category to give you a shot at the title. But that’s all you can do, and all I can do is keep you abreast of what’s going on around the league and recommend a few of those last remaining waiver gems.

So let’s get to it.

9 – Number of pitches Rafael Soriano needed to strike out the side Monday for his 38^th save of the season. His August game log is just plain sexy for his owners. Nine appearances, nine saves, one earned run allowed. This rare nine-pitch, three strike out performance really highlights the type of season he’s been having. His ERA currently stands at 1.79 and he posts nearly a strike out per inning, numbers definitely good enough to put him in the top tier closer conversation. He will not come cheaply next year.

1.266 – OPS for Omar Infante since Chipper Jones went down August 12^th. With Martin Prado now moving to 3^rd, Infante will finally have a permanent home at 2^nd base and appears locked into the leadoff spot in the Braves line up. The .300+ batting average has been there all season (and he’s actually been batting closer to .400 since July), but the consistent playing time and spot in the line up has resulted in a 12/3/6/2/.468 line over the last 11 games. Those of you scrambling for help at, well any position really (Infante is eligible at 2^nd, 3^rd, SS, and OF) need to grab the All-Star.

1.000 – Win percentage over four starts with the Dodgers for Ted Lilly, including a complete game shut out in his last start against Colorado. He’s doing everything he can to keep the Dodgers in the playoff race, but at 12.5 games back of first in the NL West it’s looking bleak.

It shouldn’t affect Lilly from a fantasy perspective. While the 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio seems too Cliff Lee-like to be true, it’s not as if he was doing poorly in that department before (3.0 K/BB with the Cubs). I fully expect the veteran to continue to pitch well, especially motivated by impending free agency.

1.006 – OPS for Evan Longoria since being moved to the clean up spot August 9^th. Owners were getting nervous watching him trudge along at a .268 clip since the beginning of July, but Longoria has mercifully rediscovered his bat in a big way, posting a 10/3/14/.322 line.

This is exactly what happened last season, and could end up being a yearly trend we will have to get used to throughout the young third baseman’s career. His career splits by month read like a perfect step ladder, with his monthly totals in order from April to September as follows: .335, .280, .258, .258, .274, .293. Those owners who are just on the cusp of playoff contention can count on a boost from their first round pick.

4 – Batting average points Albert Pujols trails Joey Votto by for the NL lead. This is important because it is the only thing keeping Pujols from being the front runner in all three Triple Crown categories. He currently leads Adam Dunn by two home runs (yes, Adam Dunn is in second) and Votto by six RBIs.

He would be the first to achieve the feat since Red Sox outfielder Carl Yastrzemski in 1967, and it would be particularly impressive for Pujols as he is having a down season by his standards (1.013 is his 2^nd-lowest OPS since 2002). Despite my fandom issues, it would be nice to see a (fingers crossed) clean guy pull off one of the most impressive feats in sports.

40 – Home runs for Jose Bautista, who I called dead at the end of June but he has continued right along defying career numbers and expert assessments. My apologies Jose, it was just business.

It will be the talk of the offseason as experts puzzle over his numbers trying to explain what was never supposed to happen. The guy had never hit more than 16 home runs in six major league seasons. He never even posted a slugging percentage above .420! Yet all it apparently took was an earlier start to his swing and we get this 2010 explosion. It will be interesting to see where his ADP shakes out next season.

10/2 – Strike out to walk ratio for young Cincinnati pitcher Homer Bailey. Need a young, fresh arm to round out your pitching staff for the playoff run? Bailey is your guy. He’s only allowed one run since his return from the minors and three fewer hits than strike outs. Obviously it’s a small sample size but remember, this guy threw a complete game shut out back on May 12^th and was a top ten prospect in 2008, so he has the skills. I expect him to finish the season with an ERA (currently at 4.52) closer to his current FIP of 4.15, and managers looking ahead to next season should circle him on the draft sheet for later.

0 – Walks allowed by Cardinals’ rookie Jaime Garcia in his last start, a complete game shut out against San Francisco. It comes as a bit of a surprise considering he hadn’t pitched more than six innings in his past four outings and many were wondering if his young arm was beginning to tire, but this helps his case to stay in the Cardinals rotation. There has been talk of skipping starts to keep him fresh but with St. Louis 2.5 games behind the Reds in the NL Central race they might need to use him if he continues to play well.

They might need to use him, but you don’t. With playoff hopes on the line I am hesitant to trust a young arm that hasn’t pitched this many innings since 2006 in the low minor leagues. Add that to a FIP and xFIP above 3.35 and you have the signs of tougher times ahead for Garcia.

3 – Home runs for Coco Crisp this month. Where did this come from? The human breakfast cereal’s season didn’t really start until late June and while his usual quickness on the base paths is there, it’s his power numbers and RBIs that have been a surprise. His current pace this month would put him at 20+ home runs and 86 RBIs over a full season, something he’s never come close to accomplishing. Looking at his splits he does boast his best batting average in September (.303) and hits the most home runs near the end of the season, so it wouldn’t exactly be a shock if he continued to play somewhere near this level the rest of the year. Feel free to give him a spin in mid-range mixed leagues.

61 – Times Royals’ third base prospect Mike Moustakas has struck out in 400 at bats this season. That’s extremely low, and when you consider he also only has 32 walks you see the most exciting thing about Moustakas: his ridiculous contact rate. Like targets in football, if you put the ball in play you’re bound to get a hit at least every once in a while, and when you’re only 5’11” but weigh 230 at 21 years old many times those hits are home runs, as he exhibited in Double-A to the tune of 21 bombs over 250 at bats.

He cooled off quite a bit after getting promoted to Triple-A, but is currently having his best week so far and had a nine game hit streak going as of last Friday. Definitely look for him to keep improving and join the major league squad next year.

Lane Rizzardini has been playing fantasy sports for over 10 years. His earliest memory was drafting Fred Lane in 2003, only to find out Fred’s wife had shot him in the offseason. You can find more of Lane’s writing over at FantasyFootball.com.

You can contact him at Lanerizz@gmail.com or through his Twitter page.