By The Numbers

09/01/2010 5:52 AM -  Lane Rizzardini

Many people are talking about Jose Bautista (as I did last week) and how unforeseeable his crazy 40+ home run season has been. None of his numbers really suggested this journeyman outfielder who hadn’t hit more than 16 home runs in a season could possibly put up these kinds of power numbers. However his story doesn’t stand alone this season, as many are ignoring the pitching version of this phenomenon: J.A. Happ.

The Houston Astros’ hurler who came over in the Roy Oswalt trade had missed most of the year with forearm problems and only started three games for the Phils before the move south. He hasn’t missed a beat, going 4-2 and minus one major blow up (one inning, seven runs against the Cardinals) has sported an ERA below two. He did a lot of the same last season, finishing 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA, good for 8^th in the majors.

So why isn’t he considered as one of the top pitchers in the majors? Because when you look at the numbers, things don’t look pretty. The most glaring warning sign are his FIP and xFIP, which are both at least a run (and his xFIP is actually two) above his current ERA. The situation was similar in 2009, with a FIP and xFIP at 4.33 and 4.49, respectively. Moving on we see a generous BABIP (.230), a high Left On-Base percentage (77.5% in 2010, a whooping 85.2% in ’09) and an alarming K/BB ratio of 1.28. His fastball velocity doesn’t even average 90 MPH. All of these things suggest a major downfall at any moment.

Yet there he is, avenging that atrocious Cardinals loss with a two-hit shut out Monday night, looking fantastic in the victory. Hitters say he’s hard to get a read on because he’s tall and comes over the top, making it easier for him to hide his pitches. He is also extremely accurate which makes up for the lack of pitch velocity. He may have an occasional major blow up like the twice aforementioned outing against the Cards, but his stuff is for real and he needs to be recognized.

It’s a reminder for fans of this article (Right fans? Fans? Hello?) and of Sabermetrics (myself included) that numbers can tell you an awful lot, but sometimes you just have to do it the old fashioned way: by watching them play.

1 – Runs allowed by Koji Uehara since taking over the closer’s role. Welcome to fantasy relevance, Koji. He has rattled off four straight saves in consecutive appearances and is clearly Buck Showalter’s finisher of choice despite Michael Gonzalez’s return from the DL some time ago, especially after the one out save he recorded in his last outing.

This is only Uehara’s second season in the majors and he actually started 12 games last season so it’s tough to gauge how successful he will be in this role. While his low 27% groundball rate scares me a bit, he boasts an impressive 6.2 strike out to ball ratio and his 1.47 FIP is even lower than his already impressive 1.93 ERA. The fact that he has only pitched 28.1 innings this season makes this a bit of a small sample size, but he was an effective closer in Japan before making the trip to the states, and so far there’s no reason to think he won’t be effective the rest of the way.

4.40 – Fernando Rodney’s ERA as the closer for the Detroit Tigers last season. Welcome back to fantasy relevance, Fernando. Brian Fuentes is the latest closer acquired by the Twins as they bolster their bullpen for a playoff run, making eighth inning man Rodney the guy in Anaheim.

He had 37 saves last season with the Tigers, but he was the definition of a roller coaster ride. As pointed out his ERA was atrocious for a reliever, and not even great for a starter. His WHIP (1.467) was nerve-wreaking, and his 1.49 K/BB ratio didn’t help matters. Yet magically, he only ended up with one blown save the entire year, so he’s clearly doing something right.

Considering his career track record, expect more of the same from Rodney as he closes out 2010 for the Halos.

1.049 – OPS for Manny Ramirez at U.S. Cellular Field, his new home with the Chicago White Sox He was picked up off waivers last week and figures to start his first game as a good guy in black tonight. In the AL he will only have to be the designated hitter, perfect for him and his notoriously bad defensive play. He will also play in a much friendlier hitter’s park.

All of this is huge for his fantasy value. However the best part is this: after he was traded midseason from Boston to Los Angeles in 2008, he went off, batting .396 and clubbing 17 home runs in only 229 plate appearances. With his perchance for revenge and improved situation, look for Manny to have a huge second half.

6 – Home runs for Marcus Thames last week, good for a top three ranking in Yahoo leagues. In the absence of Alex Rodriguez, Thames has become an everyday DH and is flourishing. He has a .368 batting average for the month of August which in that line up always translates to big RBI numbers, 14 over 18 games.

Is it for real? The home runs definitely could be (well at least as real as six home runs in seven days can be), as he has two seasons of 25+ home runs, but the .318 season batting average is totally unprecedented for him. He has a .249 career batting average and never posted a higher average than .252. The reason is pretty clear: his current .380 BaBIP is a whooping 103 points higher than his career average. Unless Yankee stadium is really having that big of an effect on his BaBIP, this can’t be for real. In case you were thinking about picking him up for the playoff stretch, I would seriously look elsewhere.

2 – Number of home runs for Carlos Gonzalez Sunday against the Dodgers, his second multi-home run game of the month. He has been an absolute draft steal, emerging this season as a legit five-tool player. He is currently on pace for an unfathomable line of 122/41/128/28/.326. The batting average actually leads the NL for those who qualify, complicating the triple crown race headlined by Albert Pujols and Joey Votto. To think his preseason rank wasn’t even in the top 100 is mindboggling.

Drafters won’t make that mistake next year, however. He’s already being projected as a first round pick in all formats, which may seem like a huge jump for a guy who hasn’t done this before but watching him play you can clearly see he’s for real. Maybe the batting average will slip a bit, but that kind of across the board production cannot be a fluke. First round is not overpaying for talent like this.

2011 – Season Stephen Strasburg will miss due to impending Tommy John’s surgery on his throwing elbow, ending his season and eliminating him from any sort of fantasy value till 2012. It feels so sudden; we waited so long for his arrival, yet we barely got any time with the phenom before he was taken from us.

It’s a sad story for all baseball lovers and sports fans in general. His 2.91 ERA and 12.18 K/9 ratio don’t even tell the whole story. He boasts four masterful pitches that he is able to mix and match seamlessly, downing even the most elite pitchers. There are simply no holes to poke here, he’s the real deal and we’re just going to have to turn away his picture sitting at our bedsides and hope he comes back into our arms the same way he left. To lose a guy like that is devastating, but we must carry on. Leave your flowers, say your prayers, and let’s get geared up for the fantasy playoffs.

200 – Strike outs for Jered Weaver. Raise your hand if you thought he would be the first to that mark this season. He’s been an underrated stud this year, currently ranked 28^th overall in standard Yahoo! leagues after being pre-ranked out of the top 100.

We could have seen this coming. He has shown consistent improvement in all major pitching statistics every season he’s been in the majors. This is especially apparent in his command, as his strike out totals have risen gradually from 105 over 123 innings his rookie year to 200 over 182 innings so far this year.

His 3.12 ERA is excellent, his walk ratio (2.37) is too, and he’s not even getting lucky (.295 BaBIP). When drafting next year remember, this isn’t washed up brother Jeff, this is a legit talent entering the prime of his career. Don’t be fooled.

2 – Runs allowed by Cincinnati reliever Nick Masset over the past two months. After a horrible first three months in which he posted a 5.88 ERA and basically got run out of the park. However his luck suddenly took a turn for the better at the start of July and now he looks unhittable.

I say luck because that definitely has something to do with it. His BaBIP the first three months of the season was a tough .387, which plummeted to .203 as the temperature rose. While an improved groundball rate has aided in this somewhat, that’s an unbelievable change in fortune. His 10.02 strike outs per nine innings ratio makes him useful in holds leagues, but he is bound to give up some runs soon so don’t expect a sub-one ERA like he’s currently posting.

.255 – Batting average for newly acquired Tampa Bay DH Brad Hawpe, 25 points lower than his career average. He’s had an awful year but helps strengthen the Rays’ bench for the playoff run. Unfortunately it does nothing for your fantasy team, and he’s really only being talked about here to keep you from going to get him thinking he’ll take off with his new team.

He’s bad, and not even getting unlucky with a .314 BaBIP. He is just plain not getting the bat on the ball, which has also sapped his home run power (.432 slugging percentage). Perhaps the hitting coaches in Tampa can help him adjust, but if he hasn’t done it yet I have a hard time believing he can fix things this late in the year. Plus the bench is crowded in Tampa and he has no guarantee of consistent playing time. Barring some sort of radical explosion he can be forgotten the rest of the season.

.70 – WHIP for Brewers pitching prospect Jeremy Jeffress over 11 relief appearances in Double-A since returning from a 100-game suspension for a second positive marijuana test. He’s supposed to be the minor leaguer focus of the week but he literally got called up as I was writing this last night. We’re still going to talk about him anyway, because he has been nasty since getting off the ganja.

A first round pick in the 2006 draft, Jeffress boasts a fastball in the mid-to-high 90’s, a nasty curveball and solid command, exhibited by his sub-one WHIP and 15/2 K/BB ratio. His change up is reportedly a bit lacking at this point, making him better suited for late-inning relief work. His call up probably won’t garner much fantasy value this season, but he should be given a hard look in holds leagues next year and kept in the back of all manager’s minds as a possible source of saves in the near future.

Lane Rizzardini has been playing fantasy sports for over 10 years. His earliest memory was drafting Fred Lane in 2003, only to find out Fred’s wife had shot him in the offseason. You can find more of Lane’s writing over at BrunoBoys.net.

You can contact him at Lanerizz@gmail.com or through his Twitter page.