Catcher Busts

02/10/2010 5:19 AM - 

Fantasybaseball.com defines a “bust” as a player who will not produce the statistics that match his average draft position.  Catchers don’t normally give great production so a bust at the catcher position can really drag down a fantasy team’s performance.  Check out these players to be wary of on draft day.

Mark Schruender

Joe Mauer. Mike Piazza was the last catcher that really got first round attention for catchers. Owners drafting Mauer there this season are going to wish that Piazza was still the last catcher that got first round attention.  Going from 7 home runs to 9 home runs to 28 home runs is too great of a spike. He’s going to come back down as indicated by his HR:FB rate which tripled last year. Also remember that Mauer has missed significant time two of the last three seasons.

Ed Lilly

Sometimes players are what they appear to be and Kelly Shoppach is one of those players. He hit .214 in 271 AB’s last season with 12 Home Runs. He only offers power and he will only be a career platoon player His career platoon splits are .295 against LHP and .224 against RHP and in Tampa he is the 2^nd best catcher. See him for what he is and bid accordingly.

Eric Homola

Benji Molina numbers will drop in 2010, especially in the second half, due to rise of Buster Posey. Posey will start to take away starts and plate appearances of Molina. Molina numbers will be similar, just scaled back to make room for the rookie.

Pat Mayo

One of these years Father Time will take Jorge Posada out back and lay him out to pasture. I’m banking on 2010 being that year. Posada is at risk of losing playing time because of his non-existent arm behind the plate. Couple that with a rash of body trauma that has left his joints arthritic and corroded, and you’ll see that Posada is playing on borrowed time. He’s a mortal lock for two DL stints this season, but he’s currently the fifth catcher coming off the board. Save yourself the headache and look elsewhere.

Fred Zinkie

It’s rare that a player stays in the same city as a free agent and I label him as a potential bust but that is what I am going to do with Bengie Molina.  For years I have felt like Molina is defying a normal decline.  Overweight players don’t usually keep their skills intact in their mid-thirties like he has.  However, in 2010 I think we started to see the beginning of his decline.  His contact rate dropped to a five-year low and pulled his batting average down with it.  I don’t think it is going to come back up too much.  On top of that, he is less likely to bat fourth for the Giants, since they have brought in other power hitters in the off-season.  He could keep that spot but it isn’t a given.  It doesn’t make sense to have a mediocre power hitter with a .260-something average and absolutely no speed in the middle of a lineup.  His season totals in recent years have been driven by a high at-bat total for his position and I think that is now in jeopardy due to his age and weight.  Add in the fact that one of the game’s top prospects is breathing down his neck and I can see plenty of reasons to pick a different catcher this year.

Jeremy Tiermini

Can we label the entire position as a bust?  For the most part, each catcher you look at comes with questions about what to expect.  So I am going out on a limb and saying that the 2010 bust here will be Joe Mauer. Before everyone overreacts, just listen.  I like Mauer as a player. From what I have read, he is a great guy.  While I would love to see him in Yankee pinstripes, baseball needs him to stay in Minnesota; I hope that he does.  I just think he won’t perform to the projections I have seen for him.  This pre-season Mauer is ranked as a player you draft in round 2, if not the later part of round 1.  His auction value has pushed over $40, according to some pre-season lists I have seen.  There are two things that scare me here.  1) He plays the most physically demanding position and is one play away from a serious injury.  2) The numbers 6, 9, 13, 7, and 9: those were Mauer’s HR totals in the seasons leading up to last year’s 28 HR’s.  It is certainly possible that his power has finally developed but, really, one of those numbers doesn’t belong.  I still see him with the following line: .310, 21 HR, 90 runs, 95 RBI’s.  Those numbers are certainly top two for catchers.  However, those numbers aren’t second round or $40 numbers.

Roy Daniel

Bengie Molina had a solid 2009 campaign and fantasy owners will be tempted to take Molina earlier than he should be.  I think that Molina has hit a plateau and we will see both his stats and playing time reduced.  The reason behind this is his age and the emergence of Buster Posey, whom I expect to be a factor after the all-star break.  Molina should end the 2010 season with 14 HRs and 69 RBIs.