Hitting factors:

1) AL DHs who are forced to either miss at bats when their clubs visit National league cities/teams or play games in the field for a game or two;

2) National league hitters who will gain at bats visiting American league cities/teams. The problem here is that we don’t know which player will get the most at bats on most clubs, but if you have a player on your fantasy team who is a strong fourth outfielder or platoons based on pitching matchups you may want them in your lineup.

Pitching factors:

1) The biggest plus is for American league starting pitchers visiting NL parks that will get to face opposing pitchers instead of the DHs they normally see. This can add several strikeouts per game;

2) On the flip side, it may be time to bench marginal NL starters if they are visiting AL cities/teams unless they are in Cleveland, Seattle, or perhaps Kansas City.

NL teams at AL parks gaining AB

Arizona Diamondbacks          @ Boston        @Detroit

NY Mets                                 @Cleveland    @NY Yankees

AL teams losing the DH in NL parks

Chicago White Sox                 @Pittsburgh                @Washington

Texas Rangers                         @Florida                     @Houston

Oakland Athletics                   @Chicago Cubs          @St. Louis

Baltimore Orioles                    @San Francisco          @San Diego

Tampa Bay Rays                     @Atlanta                    @Florida

Teams with split schedules

Philadelphia Phillies                @NY Yankees            home vs Minnesota

Washington Nationals             @Detroit                     home vs White Sox

Colorado Rockies                   @Minnesota                home vs Milwaukee               

Houston Astros                       @Kansas City             home vs Texas

Milwaukee Brewers                @LA Angels               @Colorado

San Francisco Giants              home vs Baltimore      @Toronto

Los Angeles Dodgers             @Cincinnati                @Boston

Cincinnati Reds                      home vs Dodgers        @Seattle

Cleveland Indians                   home vs NY Mets       @Pittsburgh

Kansas City Royals                 home vs Houston        @Atlanta

LA Angels of Anaheim          home vs Milwaukee   @Chicago Cubs

Minnesota Twins                     home vs Colorado       @Philadelphia

Seattle Mariners                      @Chicago Cubs          home vs Cincinnati

Toronto Blue Jays                   @San Diego                home vs San Francisco

Teams with no change for lineups

Boston Red Sox                      home vs Arizona         home vs LA Dodgers

Detroit Tigers                          home vs Washington  home vs Arizona

NY Yankees                           home vs Philadelphia  home vs NY Mets

Atlanta Braves                                    home vs Tampa Bay    home vs Kansas City

Chicago Cubs                          home vs Oakland        home vs LA Angels

Florida Marlins                        home vs Texas             home vs Tampa Bay

Pittsburgh Pirates                    home vs White Sox     home vs Cleveland

St. Louis Cardinals                 home vs Seattle           home vs Oakland

San Diego Padres                    home vs Toronto         home vs Baltimore

The reasoning is simple: unless you are in a holds league, the only thing stat that relievers can give you that starting pitchers cannot is saves. One category. I suppose they can help cushion your batting average and tack on a few strike outs, but your primary source of production for every other pitching category is your starters (or should be, or else your rotation needs work). Over the course of every season there are at least ten closer jobs that go up for grabs due to injury/poor performance/manager fickleness, leaving tons of saves on the waiver wire for you to snatch up, and a future star or two always emerges from this annual occurance. Andrew Bailey was last year’s example, and we already got one this season in Neftali Feliz. Do as Confuscius say: Never pay for closers.

If Arizona ever replaces Qualls, it should be with Heilman.

I’ll start with a few examples from the current closer market then hit some general stuff from there.

2 – Earned runs allowed by Aaron Heilman over his last 18 appearances, making him the leading candidate to replace the horrendous Chad Qualls in the desert. It’s less about Heilman (whose career numbers aren’t all that great) and more about Qualls, who has consistently proven he can’t get the job done, having blown four saves this season and allowed 15 runs over only 20 innings of work. Even more alarming is the 1.935 WHIP, an extremely troublesome number for a closer. Grab Heilman and hope A.J. Hinch gives him a chance at the job.

4 – Blown saves by Matt Capps in his last six outings, a popular stat going around lately, mostly because everyone saw it coming. His ERA has ballooned to 3.62 over that period, mostly due to the two home runs he allowed, as many as he had given up the rest of the season. That streak of 16 straight converted saves to start the season was too good to be true, though it will probably give him quite a leash for the time being. Tyler Clippard, he of the eight wins and 12 holds, is next in line, with Drew Storen probably not on the closer radar till next season.

3 – Clean innings for Brad Lidge since returning from the DL. You can’t ask for much more than no runs, no hits, no walks, four K’s and one save. Don’t call it the resurgence of 2008 Lidge, but for the time being you can call him the Phillies’ closer once again. Go get him if he’s still on waivers. The magical run for Jose Contreras is now over, as he’ll go back to set up duties unless (until?) Bad Brad decides to come back.

Well there’s your mini-closer report, now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Theriot needs to be more patient to be an effective top of the order hitter.

0 – Number of walks for Ryan Theriot between May 2^nd and June 4^th. This is ridiculous and absolutely unacceptable for a player batting first for a major league team. It is imperative for speed guys with power numbers akin to the electric bill of an Amish village to get on base. He didn’t, which translated to a dip in runs, accumulating only seven over 25 games while striking out 11 times. There is good news however, as he has walked three times in his last three games, with two coming on Monday. His line? 2/3, 2 BB, four runs, two stolen bases. Funny how that works.

2 – Runs of support or less for Ted Lilly in five of his last six starts, explaining his 1-5 record. He and Zach Greinke should start their own support group, or maybe a dating service for abused pitchers seeking new offensive relationships. Lilly himself has pitched just fine with five consecutive quality starts, and his strike outs have gradually increased since a lame one K performance against Florida May 4^th. Remember, this is the guy who posted a 3.10 ERA and an impressive 1.054 WHIP last season and has a pretty solid track record of success. The strike outs will soon return to at least near his 7.65 career mark and he will be a valuable ERA/WHIP guy down the stretch.

4 – Losses in his last seven starts for Randy Wells, and unlike Lilly the problem is him, not the Cubs’ anemic offense (though he hasn’t gotten much help either; in only two of those starts has he gotten more than two runs of support). His ERA is 6.11 over this stretch, characterized by wild inconsistency: two starts of one or fewer earned runs, three starts of five or more, the worst example a six hit, five run appearance against the Cardinals in which he managed not to retire a single batter. A game I had the pleasure of attending. The move here is to bench him until he figures himself out, and depending on how your waiver wire looks, a finger near the drop button.

His numbers were bound to go back to normal sooner or later.

11 – RBIs over the past 22 games for Casey McGehee after erupting for 32 in his first 32 games. This was pretty inevitable as his pace was clearly ridiculous and he had no business being the league leader in RBIs despite batting behind Braun and Fielder, but the steep slide in batting average (.248) and BB/K ratio (4:14) is quite worrisome. This is the major problem with young players: when they slump, there’s no way to tell whether it’s just a slump or who they actually are because we have no career numbers to fall back on. Judging from the unexpected production and now suddenly alarming fall from grace, I hope you sold high on him while you had the chance.

33 – Number of games Grady Sizemore played this season before going under the knife last week, finishing with a startlingly bad 13/0/12/4/.211 line. He never found his bat and now hasn’t played over 110 games in a season since 2008. I recognize this stat isn’t very useful now that he’s gone; it’s mostly just my way of saying I told you so.

.225 – Batting average for Cameron Maybin, who figures to be the odd man out in Florida now that Mike Stanton has been called up. He will probably still get some time as Stanton is eased into a major league starting role, but as the batting average indicates he wasn’t exactly very useful before, with only five extra base hits all season. You can officially part ways and never look back.

34-23 – Best record in the National League for, everyone together now, the San Diego Padres. This despite ranking only 13^th in batting average and RBIs, and 14^th in home runs. Their strength has been their pitching, going top five in wins and sporting a sparkling 3.02 ERA, currently the best in the majors. Four of their starters currently have an ERA under 3.3, and I’ll analyze the player of your choice in the next article if you can name one guy in their rotation not named Matt Latos.

Of course the most important part of all this for fantasy owners is that every day the Friars remain above .500 the less likely it is they will let Adrian Gonzalez go somewhere else and hit 55 home runs. He’ll do what he always does (currently on pace for 91/37/108/.288), but everyone knows that park is preventing the former #1 pick from putting up some gaudy slugging numbers. I’d say keep praying for the hand of God to smite them but I doubt that works on these guys.

Enjoy your week, and for hopefully the last time till next season: Go Blackhawks. Just one more boys, bring it home.

Brad Lidge ( elbow) and J. C. Romero were both put on the 15-day DL. Romero is closer to returning and expect him back in the second week. Lidge is more of a concern. His velocity has been down and he was given a cortisone shot in his elbow on Tuesday. This could have longterm consequences.  Ryan Madson will assume the closer role .

As you know  if you  have read our previous articles on TOUT WARS or followed the competition at all (www.toutwars.com if you haven’t  or want current information) these are the premier “industry leagues” for fantasy baseball writers.

I drafted Sunday morning and below I am going to reveal my team in a blog mode, but here was my plan going in:

• Spend no more than $30 on any hitter….spreading the risk and going for a balanced team
• Spending a little more for pitching than you have seen in previous articles that Jason and I have done where I normally allocate $50-60 for pitching and trying to dominate the hitting categories and having all full time players. In this draft I would try for the best staff that $70 could buy
• My hitting/pitching allocation would be $190/70
• Try and get as much money out of my competitors early – they spent like crazy last year so that worked pretty well  and since I wouldn’t be buying the most expensive players it would give me a good nominating strategy
• Get two productive catchers….dollar catchers don’t work in this league format
• HAVE FUN

Okay, so here we go….Alex Cushing of MLB.com was on my left and had the first nomination and put up Tim Lincecum who was bought for $30. I thought this was a good way to go and put up Roy Halladay who fetched $29. I really didn’t like this beginning as today the opponents were very controlled and I feared this would lead to too much money available later and thus bidding wars in the middle of the auction, not the top where I wanted it.

Pujols went for $45….better but he went much higher last year.

I got the fifth player nominated – David Aardsma for $12….I liked that price (not realizing the closer market was going to top out at $20)

Almost a round later I bid $24 to get Brian McCann…just where I have him projected…and while I don’t rate to make money on that investment I won’t lose as others will.

$25 got me Zach Greinke….less than all the other Tier One pitchers at a price with some upside but very solid

Marlon Byrd was put for a dollar and few bids – got him for $4 which will be a very nice small profit (will earn at least $10)

Went the extra dollar to $31 for Justin Upton and think he will earn more than that…very nice…he will be my STUD hitter

Another long wait  for a player, but I like Kendry Morales at $25….less than the other Tier 1 and 2 1B…and more BA

Arizona outfielder Chris Young for only $7 – well I have the BAvg ballast to handle him

Shin-Soo Choo, hopefully one of my 20/20 outfielders for $23

Bengie Molina for $10…still a good run producer with plus BA for a catcher

Elvis Andrus….and Karabell costs me an extra two dollars but happy to land the speed at $18

VERY happy to get Wandy Rodriguez for my second SP at $13…very good value there

Asdrubal at 2B for me at $11….I think people are sleeping on him this year

Now getting buys very close together in the middle of the auction as I roster Chipper Jones for $9….sure he may miss some time…always does but at that price for a near .300 average and twenty home runs, I have good profit

Jorge Cantu for another $9 – giving me solid CI and 3B if Chipper misses time

$7 for Matt Capps as my second closer is Excellent

At this point, two hours into the draft, all of the $20+ players but one are gone, and most of the $15s, so while I had to push, I made a huge steal getting Adam Jones for $14

After that there are either value plays or bidding wars….so I wait

Finally we get to the end of the auction and I am in great shape….have $18 left for seven players. I need a MI and a UT and it would be nice if one of them qualified at CI….but the best hitter on the board is an “Angel in the outfield” so we will see….also have to be careful with the nominations. There are a couple with more money, one with way too much.

I nominate Daniel Bard for $2 and get him….good strikeouts and slight but possible odd save potential

I get Randy Wolf as my SP3 for $4….very nice

Martin Prado would have have been great for my team goes to moneybags for $12! most don’t have that total left

Arizona pitcher and very nice sleeper Ian Kennedy is nominated and I get him for $4 as well

Long time now but finally I nominate KC’s Alberto Callaspo for $1 and get him. I now have seven dollars left for my UT and two pitchers.

I nominate Juan Rivera for my final hitter at $2 and smile when I get crickets (no bids)

Aroldis Chapman is nominated for a buck and I get him for $2…..Sensational…sure he might start in the minors, but he will earn a lot more than that when he finally arrives.

Mat Latos, very promising young starter for the Padres is nominated and I say $THREE and get him with my last three dollars.

Wow, lot of fun but lot of work and that strategy requires a lot of discipline and some dry spells, but here is the final team

C – McCann (24) & Bengie Molina (10)

CI – Morales (25, Jones (9), & Cantu (9)

MI – A. Cabrera (11), Andrus (18) & Callaspo (1)

OF – J. Upton (31), Choo (23), Adam Jones (14) Chris Young (7), Byrd (4)

UT – Juan Rivera (2)

SP – Greinke (25), Wandy (13), Wolf (4), Kennedy (4), Chapman (2), Latos (3)

RP – Aardsma (12), Capps (7), Bard (2)

Reserves (drafted after auction) – Coco Crisp, Sergio Romo, Tim Wakefield, and Daniel Murphy

I think it looks pretty good. Callaspo might have been my one error as I may be lighter on stolen bases and could have used a Luis Castillo or Cliff Pennington there (assuming I could get them for the same dollar).

Pitching should be very good

Glad to answer any questions or discuss the mixed TOUT league on the message boards if you want.

NEW YORK YANKEES

• Well the burning question seems to be Joba Chamberlain or Phillip Hughes for the fifth spot in the Yankees rotation? The answer could easily be neither too.
• Will Curtis Granderson settle right in and take to the bright lights and constant demands of life in NYC?
• Can Nick Johnson stay healthy and hit enough so fans don’t miss Hideki Matsui as the DH?
• How many games can Joe Girardi get from aging but still productive catcher Jorge Posada?
• Will LF remain a platoon of Randy Winn and Brett Gardner or will one play so well/poorly that one is benched?
• Will Javier Vazquez fare better in his second tour of duty with the Yankees? I think that answer is yes but the numbers won’t be anywhere near as good as last year in the NL East.

 BOSTON RED SOX

• Will the Red Sox get enough production from DH David Ortiz? The second half of 2009 was encouraging but they need his bat
• Does 2008 MVP Dustin Pedroia give fantasy players enough production this season?
• Will Josh Beckett be the Ace of the Bosox staff? Lester and Lackey will be pushing him
• Does Tim Wakefield play super utility pitcher or will assorted injuries keep DiceK out of the rotation and let Wakefield start?

 BALTIMORE ORIOLES

• With a pretty good everyday lineup the question for Orioles fans will be can they get enough pitching?
• Fantasy players just want to know which pitchers to invest in? Matusz is the only certainty although Tillman looks good long term
• Will Matt Wieters take the next step up to stardom this year?
• Can new first baseman Garrett Atkins forget about last year and supply the power he has shown in the past?
• Will Miguel Tejada be successful in switching from SS to 3B?
• How hurt is Brian Roberts? Will he be able to lead off the season?

 TAMPA BAY RAYS

• Does Matt Joyce win the RF job outright? Or does 2B Sean Rodriguez force his way into the lineup? (likely platoon of Joyce//Rodriguez would have Zobrist alternate positions and places in the batting order)
• Will newly signed CI/DH Hank Blalock hit well enough to be fantasy relevant? And will he cost Willy Aybar AB and perhaps a job?
• Can B.J. Upton finally put together the season Rays fans and fantasy owners thought he would have?
• Will new closer Rafael Soriano be able to stay healthy all year?
• If David Price pitches well enough to be in the rotation what do the Rays do with Andy Sonnanstine?

 TORONTO BLUE JAYS

• Which three young Blue Jay pitchers will join Shawn Marcum and Ricky Romero in the rotation?
• When will SP Dustin McGowan be able to return to the team? (his rehab continues to be way ahead of schedule)
• Does outfielder Travis Snider find his stroke this year?
• Can veteran CF Vernon Wells find his game and be the cleanup hitter Toronto needs?
• Will RP Jason Frasor find a new home before the season starts or work with Kevin Gregg and Scott Downs in the Blue Jays pen?

A Season on Baseball’s Lunatic Fringe

AN ORIGINAL FANTASY BASEBALL DOCUMENTARY

Before the 2004 baseball season, Sam Walker was a happily married, tie-wearing sportswriter leading a responsible and well-rounded life.  But by the time that season was over, he had spent tens of thousands of dollars, traveled 19,000 miles, missed 3 weddings and a funeral, and ignored a raging fire in a neighbor’s apartment.  He’d become a caffeine-addled insomniac with back spasms, willing to ignore family, work and anything else that might distract him from his one, increasingly elusive goal:  winning his fantasy-baseball league.

Inspired by Walker’s best-selling book of the same name, FANTASYLAND is a documentary feature film about the bizarre and fascinating world of fantasy baseball, wherein an estimated 15 million Americans (approximately 5% of the nation’s population) actively play or have played fantasy baseball.  In FANTASYLAND, we’ll meet some of these people – the fans, fanatics, experts and amateurs, who battle it out every baseball season (and beyond). 

As in Sam Walker’s book, FANTASYLAND will document an “amateur” fantasy baseball player’s first season participating in Tout Wars, the ultimate fantasy baseball league, where the self-appointed gurus of the sport reside. However, unlike Sam Walker, the film’s lead character will not be a sports professional with media credentials and industry contacts; he’ll be an ordinary fantasy baseball player, who is thrown into the lion’s den of Tout Wars and forced to compete with the experts.

In 2008, Jed Latkin, a research analyst for ING and a fantasy enthusiast, beat out several hundred people for a seat at the TOUT WARS table, to test his skills against the foremost experts in the industry.  Utilizing his professional skills as a trader, and his innate ability and resourcefulness, he traveled to spring training to connect with scouts, players, journalists and anyone else willing to answer his questions about which rookie is due for a breakout season, what veteran fell out of shape during the off-season, and which overpaid superstar might see his playing time cut.   And his quest for information did not end once the first pitch was tossed on the 2008 baseball season:  whether it was tracking down Justin Verlander to give him a pep talk, confronting Carl Crawford about his recent performance, or even learning a little Japanese to communicate with Ichiro, Jed went to any length to win the league.

FANTASYLAND also examines the ways in which Jed’s personal life was severely impacted by his obsession.  Cameras followed him in his daily life as well as he had to manage his day job, a new bride, and the birth of twins.

In addition, FANTASYLAND will explore the larger cultural significance of fantasy baseball and other fantasy competitions – which includes every sport from football to soccer to Nascar, as well as fashion leagues, celebrity leagues, political leagues, and even graduate student leagues (where students draft their classmates and earn points on how well they do in school). 

Ultimately, FANTASYLAND will appeal to fans of competition documentaries like “Spellbound”, “Mad Hot Ballroom” and “King of Kong”, as well as the millions of fantasy sports players, general sports enthusiasts and anyone else intrigued by the exciting, humorous, sometimes scary and surprising lengths to which otherwise normal people will go just to win a mere contest of pride.

Director – Stephen Palgon, has 12 years of experience of working with a variety of television networks (including HBO, ESPN, CBS, USA), creating featured programming including the documentary “Star Crossed: The Shakespearean Tragedy of Darryl Strawberry and Dwight Gooden”, which received a Gold Medal New York Film Award.  Palgon also won two Sports Emmy Awards for producing and directing the HBO documentary series “Legendary Nights” as well as ESPN’s Hurricane Carter “Sports Century” documentary.

Producer – Endgame Entertainment is a privately financed independent entertainment company, headed by James D Stern one of the owners of the Chicago Bulls, producing and financing such films as Oscar nominated “Hotel Rwanda”, “Harold & Kumar Go White Castle”, “Lord of War” and the Oscar nominated Bob Dylan Biopic “I’m Not There” and “An Education”; while directing “Michael Jordan to the MAX” and “The Year of the Yao”.

Producer – Wonderland Sound and Vision was founded by McG who has directed several films including “Terminator: Salvation”, “We Are Marshall”, and “Charlie’s Angel’s 1 & 2”.  He is also responsible for creating television shows such as “The OC”, “Chuck”, “Pussycat Dolls’, “Supernatural” and most recently “Human Target”.

Producer – Sound Pictures is an independent production company run by John Limotte and Doug Bernheim and has produced several independent films including “The Assassination of Richard Nixon”, “Live Free or Die”, “Winter Solstice”, and “Pretty Bird”.

For extra scenes, more trailers and all the information you need as we get ready for Friday’s launch, and to be a part of the Fantasyland community join us at:

www.fantasylandfilm.com <http://www.fantasylandfilm.com/
http://Facebook.com/fantasylandfilm
Twitter.com/fantasylandfilm <http://twitter.com/fantasylandfilm> 
Youtube.com/fantasylandfilm <http://youtube.com/fantasylandfilm>

 ATLANTA BRAVES

• First and foremost for fantasy players if not Bobby Cox is “Will uber prospect Jason Heyward be the starting right fielder on April 5?”
• If Heyward is on the opening day roster how will the LF at bats play out with both Melky Cabrera and Matt Diaz thinking they should be full time players?
• Can Chipper Jones have one more productive and (mostly) injury free season before he rides off into retirement next year?
• Was SP Jair Jurrjens shoulder inflammation a one time occurrence or will he have problems during the year? We would have expected some regression from his ERA but otherwise solid performance if healthy.
• Can Nate McLouth bounce back and be the productive lead-off hitter the Braves need?
• Will Tim Hudson’s return continue in a positive direction? If so it should give Atlanta a very stable starting rotation.
• Is new closer Billy Wagner 100% healthy and can he stay that way all season?

 FLORIDA MARLINS

• Will the Marlins finally give prospects Gaby Sanchez or Logan Morrison the job at first base?
• If they choose neither and play veteran Jorge Cantu there what will they do at third base?
• Can LF Chris Coghlan avoid a “sophomore jinx” and improve on his 2009 ROY season?
• Does CF Cameron Maybin take the next step up towards star status?
• Can closer Leo Nunez be effective on a full time basis?
• Will the starting rotation stay healthy most of the year?  A very talented group IF they can pitch all year

 NEW YORK METS

• Looks like the medical staff gets most of these questions but foremost….Will Jose Reyes be able to play a full season…and run?
• Is Johan Santana completely healthy and ready to go?
• Are there more problems than we know about with KRod?
• How long will Carlos Beltran be out?
• Will at least some of David Wright’s HR power return?
• Who wins the fifth spot in the rotation?

 PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

• Most of the questions for the Phillies are on the pitching side – starting with closer Brad Lidge – which one will we see this year? The Phillies would settle for something in between but definitely need a better effort than last year.
• If not is Ryan Madson the answer?
• Will J.A. Happ take the next step up from last year’s great effort, or regress in his second year in the rotation?
• Who wins the fifth spot in the rotation? To date Kyle Kendrick has looked better than Jamie Moyer or Jose Contreras.
• Can the offense make all the above questions irrelevant? Well we know they can, but will they?

 WASHINGTON NATIONALS

• Most fantasy players #1 question would be when Stephen Strasburg is put into the Nationals rotation? Bet on June and be happy with anything earlier
• Is this the year that all the talent in the Nats outfield takes a step forward?
• When will Jesus Flores be off the disabled list and ready to catch?
• How many AB will Ian Desmond get in 2010?
• Can Matt Capps return to form and be The closer for Washington this year?
• How many wins can new manager Jim Riggelman get from this edition of the Nationals?