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By George Kurtz
Today is the second in our series of positional rankings. We will go over our top 15 first basemen this year. Like all of our rankings, we will only rank players whose primary position will be first base this season. As you can see from this list 1B is a deep position and one I generally choose to fulfill later on in the draft. Sure I would take Pujols if I had the first pick in the draft, but since my odds are against it, I’ll wait and secure some other needs at positions not as deep and still be plenty satisfied by picking up a Justin Morneau or Carlos Pena later on in the draft.
Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals: Not only is Pujols the number one 1B, but he is probably going to be the first overall pick in most leagues. There’s not much to complain about with Pujols. You know you’re going to get plenty of power with a great batting average. He surely will drive in his share of runs and things should only get better with Matt Holliday on board for an entire season. It doesn’t hurt any that the Cardinals are clear favorites to win the National League Central.
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies: Two through five can pretty much go in any order. I wouldn’t complain about any one of them. What I like so much about Howard is that he plays even better when the games mean the most. When you’re pushing for first place in August in September Howard seems to really turn it on.
Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees: Teixeira set new career highs in home runs and RBIs in his first season in pinstripes and I see little reason to believe he won’t at the very least equal those numbers. He’s playing in a powerful lineup, has ARod hitting in front of him, switch hits, and can easily take advantage of the short porch in right field. The fact that his average won’t hurt you, in fact it will probably help you is what places him third on my list.
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers: Hard to argue with Fielder’s production, and I’m not about to start here. I dropped him in my ranking for two reasons. First, as we all know by now that vegan diet he was apparently on didn’t work and he may be the worst physical specimen in the majors. Sooner or later this has to catch up with him. Second, and probably more important for this season, if the Brewers aren’t in contention, Fielder is going to be hearing about his contract status all season long, and all the trade rumors that come along with it.
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers: Cabrera is supposedly in the best shape of his career after giving up alcohol. This all came to a head late last season when he stayed out and got drunk the night before a big game versus Minnesota. Good for him if he can stay on the wagon, and as far as fantasy owners go his production has always been there. His second season in Detroit and the American League was more productive than the first and he should have more base runners on when he is hitting with the addition of Johnny Damon.
Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres: I know what you’re thinking, if Gonzalez can put up those kinds of numbers in Petco Park playing for that offense, what will he do when he gets traded to a real team, in what will most likely be a smaller ballpark by the trading deadline in July? It’s fun to think about isn’t it? That being said, because of the ballpark and the lineup around him, it’s hard to place him any higher than fifth. If I was the opposing manager I’d give him the Barry Bonds treatment and walk him constantly.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds: Yeah I probably ranked Votto a little bit higher than most, but he has tremendous upside. I’m not sure if I would have the stones to grab Votto at this spot should he be available in anything but a keeper or dynasty league, but I just have a feeling that this could be the season where he puts it all together. Of course you do have to worry about his bout with depression that kept him out of the lineup for a couple of weeks last season, but this is a player that may be obtained on the cheap in most drafts.
Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins: Morneau was well on his way to another fantastic season in 2010 before suffering a stress fracture in his back that forced his season to come to a premature end in early September. His back is fully healed now and he is once again ready to play. While the back may be healed it is safe to wonder what the effect of the Twins moving to Target Field and away from the Metrodome will have on his stats. No one knows how the new field will play, although the rumors are it will indeed favor left handed hitters.
Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox: This may be the start of the second tier of first basemen, not that you should be afraid of drafting Kevin. Youkilis does not possess the power of the others that are ranked above him as high 20s is probably his limit. RBIs can also be a problem as Youk has only driven in over 100 runs once in his career and the Red Sox offense is not what it used to be.
Kendry Morales, Los Angeles Angels: One year wonders always frighten me a little bit. You may get a tremendous value if you’re willing to take a gamble, or you may get a tremendous bust. True the Angels never really gave him a chance until last season so perhaps he had this potential all along, but I’m not going to be willing to chance it at a deep position. The Angels offense may also not be the same with the loss of Chone Figgins and Vladimir Guererro, leaving fewer runners on base for Morales to drive in.
Adam Dunn, Washington Nationals: Dunn will be playing 1B for Washington this season. Perhaps his defensive deficiencies can be hidden there, perhaps not. Either way that doesn’t matter as you’re drafting him for his long ball capabilities, not his ability to catch the ball. Dunn is incredibly consistent in that he is going to hit around 40 home runs, drive in around 100 RBIs, and bat around .260. I love consistency in a player. It’s rare that you know exactly what you’re going to get.
Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays: Pena comes with a couple of questions. He did miss the last few weeks of the season last year because of a couple of broken fingers. Those have healed and he should be ready to go which brings us to our second question, can you live with his declining average. Pena will put up the home runs and the RBIs, but may bat around .240 doing so. Keep this in mind when drafting him as you will need to draft a high average type to offset the damage he will do in this category.
Lance Berkman, Houston Astros: It’s safe to wonder if Berkman’s body is starting to break down at the age of 34. He had a calf injury last season that knocked him out for a couple of weeks and has already suffered a knee injury this spring that will knock him out of a couple of games. He comes with more risk than reward at this point. If he can stay healthy he can be a jewel as he will also steal his share of bases along with his power potential.
Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs: When it comes down to Lee everyone will have to make up their minds as to whether or not he can repeat the season he had last year. Lee was a terrific bargain in 2009 as no one expected 35 HRs, with 111 RBIs, and a .306 AVG. Put me in the category of not believing he can do that again, but can still be a productive corner infielder for you.
Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies: When I mentioned that you would need a high average sort to offset someone like Carlos Pena, Helton would be perfect for you. Since injuring his back several seasons ago, Helton no longer is a power hitter, 20 would be the most you could hope for, but he is an average machine and still bats cleanup for a very good lineup.