Draft Day Tip

03/12/2010 4:57 AM -  Mark Schruender

By: Mark Schruender

This tip is especially critical for leagues that draft right before Opening Day. Do not pay attention to spring training statistics. Spring training is the equivalent to the NFL preseason, but slightly longer. The main goal for all players is to come out healthy – not win a batting title. So often we want to see who the leader was in the Grapefruit League thinking that will be an indication of what will take place in the season. Last year the MLB leader in runs scored in the February to March race to nowhere was Andres Torres who ended up getting 152 at-bats in the regular season. Craig Monroe was tied for second in home runs with eight, and the guy he was tied with was none other than Mike Wilson (who?). The fact is that some of these home runs are being hit off of minor league arms that will never taste big league action and some of these home runs are being hit by players that won’t taste big league action. Pay attention to pitchers coming off injury or young pitchers, but even most of these stats provide little substance when it comes to knowing someone is the best option. Dave Bush made 9 starts last year in the spring, but recorded only 33.1 innings. In the regular season, players separate themselves from the field by how they handle a lineup the second and third times through the order. There is rarely a second time through the order and almost never a third time through in the spring. Rely on the sample sizes and importance of the stats that were accumulated during the 2009 season and the normal curve for possible breakout or developing players.