Draft Debates – Carl Crawford vs Jacoby Ellsbury

03/09/2010 4:46 AM -  Jeremy Tiermini

The American League East is home to three top offenses, with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays all expected to put up big numbers.  Two big names found at the top of the order, Carl Crawford for the Rays and Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox, are projected for big seasons. So which player should get selected first?

Let’s take a look at standard 5 X 5 categories first.

Home Runs-Crawford went yard 15 times in 2009; this was his fifth season in double figures.  Crawford is 6-2, 215 so he should be able to generate more power and could threaten for a 20+ HR season.  Ellsbury has never demonstrated power in either the majors or minors; in his two full seasons (2008 and 2009) as a starter he has hit 9 and 8 HR, respectively.  Even more disconcerting about Ellsbury’s power: his fly ball rate increased in 2009 but he managed to hit one fewer HR in 82 more plate appearances.  Moderate edge to Crawford.

 

Runs – Both players will score and both should get close to the 100 run plateau.  No advantage.

 

RBI’s – Ellsbury is primarily a groundball hitter, which limits his ability to drive in runs; in his two full seasons as Boston’s starting CF he had 47 and 60 RBI’s, respectively.  Crawford’s power lends itself to more RBI’s, as he has reached 68 or more RBI’s in four different seasons and has had two seasons of 80 or more RBI’s.  Moderate edge to Crawford.

 

Batting Average – Crawford is a career .295 hitter; Ellsbury’s career mark is .296.  No advantage.

 

Stolen Bases – This should be the category where Ellsbury has a big edge, since he stole 70 bases in 2009.  Crawford has had five seasons of 50 SB or more, with a career high of 60 in 2009.  A closer look at Crawford’s stats show that he only stole 16 SB after the All-Star Break last season; his success rate fell from 86% to 64 % after the break.  Reports indicate Crawford found a flaw in his jump from 1B; he spent the off-season working on this and should get thrown out less this season.  However, because of the potential to get 70 SB: Slight edge to Ellsbury.

Now let’s take a look at:

X-Factors – In researching Average Draft Positions (ADP) for the two, Crawford’s ADP is 9-10; Ellsbury’s ADP is 18-20.  A look at auction prices show Crawford’s price around an average $38, with Ellsbury going for an average of $30.  Much has been made of Crawford’s upcoming free agency, but Ellsbury is arbitration-eligible and has the same motivation to perform well this season.

 

Final Decision – Any owner will be happy with Ellsbury filling the SB column; however, when preparing my projections I found that many OF’s can contribute to the SB column so owners don’t need to lock onto a high-SB player.  Crawford will be close enough to Ellsbury in SB that his extra power pushes him ahead of Ellsbury.  My projections: Crawford (95 runs, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 58 SB, .302), and Ellsbury (100 runs, 8 HR, 58 RBI, 65 SB, .295).  Given the choice, I am drafting Carl Crawford.