Draft Debates – Grady Sizemore vs Justin Upton

03/06/2010 4:52 AM -  Mark Schruender

Choosing between Grady Sizemore and Justin Upton isn’t easy, but looking at five different factors, Upton gets just the slightest edge.

ADP vs. Actual Projected Stats:

Sizemore is being chosen number 28 and Upton number 24 on average at Mock Draft Central right now, so the general consensus is also in agreement that Upton should be the first option. If the projected stats are realized by both players, the owners that select Upton ahead of Sizemore will be rewarded. Here’s where Bill James’ projection have both players ending up.

Upton: 28 HR 93 RBI 90 Runs 19 SB .293 AVG

Sizemore: 25 HR 78 RBI 101 Runs 21 SB .272 AVG

Since Upton takes three out of five categories he is the better pick, but he’s also the better value because of how close he is to Sizemore in steals and runs scored. In other words for auction leagues, there’s more than just a one dollar difference between these two players or in standard leagues there should be more than three players between them. Sizemore gives up much too much in batting average in this projection, which is actually generous compared to last year when Sizemore gave up 52 points.

Injury Concern:

In Upton’s case there is none. The fighting chicken could knock on his door instead of Peter Griffin’s at any time, but that’s the natural risk involved with taking any player. Upton missed time last August with an oblique strain, but it isn’t anything that should linger.

Sizemore is said to be fully rehabilitated from the elbow and hernia injuries that caused him to miss 56 games and play ineffectively in who knows how many more games. Even if that is assumed true, Sizemore now inherits a small history of his body breaking down and naturally is the player to be more concerned with “taking a chance” on next year. It’s not taking a chance in the same sense as taking a player like Rich Harden, but in a game that is so dependent on the smallest breaks when looking at the end of the season standings, every angle needs to be covered.

Upside:

Can’t spell Upton without up. Last year while turning 22 in August, Upton showed to this point in his career that he was worth being taken with the first overall pick in 2005. Sizemore also celebrates a birthday in August, and he is still relatively young in baseball years at 27. If we’re talking about upside though, it’s clear who wins this battle. Usually baseball players won’t start hitting their peak until they reach Sizemore’s current age or experience level. While Sizemore might not have had his career season yet, the 20/20 season Upton had in 2009 is only scratching the surface of what his future might be. When it comes to choosing which player will show us something surprisingly good or easily having the best season of their career the choice has to be Upton.

Lineup Support:

Sizemore is expected to hit second behind Asdrubal Cabrera which will enable him to approach the neighborhood of his career high 90 RBI set in 2008. It still won’t get him the RBI that Upton will get hitting third. Aaron Hill was the best run producer in the game out of the second spot in the order last year with 108, but he had the added benefit of getting more at-bats than any player in baseball.

Both Sizemore and Upton are expected to be protected by their team’s other good hitter. Shin-Soo Choo is a more consistent hitter for average while Mark Reynolds is more of an all-or-nothing power hitter. The lineups also have their share of questions. In Cleveland, can Matt LaPorta and Trevor Crowe learn to hit now rather than later or never? In Arizona, will Conor Jackson and Stephen Drew ever live up to the hype they had a few years ago as prospects and have shown brief glimpses of in the majors? There isn’t an advantage one way or another for the players in this department. Sizemore will score more runs and Upton will drive in more runs.

Category Weakness:

When push comes to shove, Sizemore has a hole in his game as a fantasy player and Upton appears to have fixed his. Sizemore has never been a good hitter for average because he strikes out too much. Upton struck out an astonishing 34% of the time in 2008, but cut that down to 26% last year. The correlation between strikeouts and his batting average was huge because it raised his average 50 points. To think that Sizemore would be able to also cut back on his 21% strikeout rate would be asking too much since he’s been around that number for much longer than Upton was at 34%. Especially early in a draft having a player with no glaring weaknesses is a benefit in making the best picks going forward because you put off having to balance the scales until later. The projected stats, injury risk, upside, and overall ability to balance a 5×5 roster all favor Upton by the slightest margins, but in the grand scheme of how close fantasy titles are often decided by it makes Justin Upton the easy choice on draft day.