First Base Busts

02/18/2010 5:00 AM - 

Fantasybaseball.com defines a “bust” as a player who will not produce the statistics that match his average draft position.  First base will be loaded with elite production in 2010.  This means that owning a bust at this position will put a fantasy owners way behind the other teams in terms of production at that roster spot.  Here is a list of potential busts at first base in 2010.

Mark Schruender

Lance Berkman. His star is already fading, but most analysts haven’t backed him up enough. Mock Draft Central had him going in the mid 50s on average this winter. Quite frankly I have a hard time seeing Lance get into the top 80. He’s heading toward his mid 30s and last year was shut down by lefties. What manager isn’t sending a situational guy in against him in the 7^th, 8^th or even 9^th inning this year?

Ed Lilly

Lyle Overbay is in decline and has minimal value to fantasy players. Injuries and age have conspired to make him less than a league average 1B.  There isn’t anything that shows that he will rebound and he isn’t even worth a late flyer. Avoid at all cost.

Eric Homola

I think that Kendry Morales stats will drop in 2010. Without Vlad in the middle of the order, I think he will see better pitches. He struck out 117 times and only walked 46 times, so he needs to be more patient at the plate. Combine that with an O-Swing% of 32.3% (percent of pitches swung that were outside the strike zone) which was the worst among active first basemen. He should still produce well, but with lower stats than last year, thus the bust label. Man, that was a tough call, since the Angels are one of my favorite teams, but the numbers don’t lie. Of course if he changes, he might change all that.

Pat Mayo

There’s one name that seems out of place from the preseason ADPs – Kendry Morales. I get it. Morales was a savior for all waiver wire scavengers last season. He posted huge numbers hitting clean-up in LA, but with so many other options at first base, I’d be inclined to look elsewhere. I refuse to pay this steep a price based on one great season when there’s a plethora of safer options on the board.

Fred Zinkie

Don’t pitch to Adrian Gonzalez!  There you go, I just figured out how to shut down San Diego’s offense.  In many mixed league drafts, Gonzalez is being drafted in the second or third rounds.   I just don’t see how you can go that high with a player who hits in the league’s worst hitting park and is part of the league’s worst offense.  I don’t think he will see enough pitches to hit 40 home runs again and I could see him hitting 35 or slightly less.  His average is….well……average.  He has no speed at all and while he could drive in 100 runs I don’t think he will go much higher than that due to his surrounding lineup.  A trade out of San Diego would completely change my opinion of him but I would rather draft a power hitter who can run a little bit or draft a power hitter in a good offense when we are talking about one of the first 30 picks of a mixed league draft.

Jeremy Tiermini

Last season I had SB to trade and really needed power.  I failed to make a trade that almost derailed my season; I would have moved Michael Bourn to acquire Kendry Morales.  I didn’t pull the trigger then Morales went ballistic; to me it seemed as if he hit a bomb every at bat, just to mess with me.  The Angels finally gave him a chance and he responded: .306, 34 HR, 108 RBI’s.  The issue for me is that he has only done it for one season; because of that, he reminds me of Josh Hamilton.  The Angels also do not have an imposing line-up, so it will be easier for pitchers to work carefully to Morales.  I think he goes for .280, 26 HR, 80 runs, 90 RBI’s; if you draft him early as a top-flight 1B those numbers are disappointing.

Roy Daniel

Mark Reynolds had a career season in 2009 as he finished with 44 HRs and 102 RBIs.   However, he will not be able to maintain those stats in 2010 as he swings at anything close to the strike zone.  He finished last season with 223 strikeouts and he does not look to have corrected this deficiency.  As a result, owners should temper their expectations, as he will finish the season with 30 HRs and 89 RBIs.