Second Base Busts

02/25/2010 5:00 AM - 

Fantasybaseball.com defines a “bust” as a player who will not produce the statistics that match his average draft position.  Second base provided fantasy owners with some surpising elite performers in 2009.  Will those players disappoint fantasy owners that are looking for a repeat in 2010?  And, which other players could be disappointing at this position?  Read on to find out…..

Mark Schruender

Ben Zobrist. His slugging percentage fell by more than 100 points in the second half. No way he’s going to be top 40 good again.  We saw a good half season from him but I want to see a good full season before I am a believer.

Ed Lilly

David Eckstein should not be a starter. David Eckstein will drag your team down. David Eckstein is a bust, will continue to be a bust. Please, I beg you even if you are desperate, do not, I repeat do not draft him. Really he offers nothing to fantasy baseball and will give nothing of note to the Padres.

Eric Homola

Jose Lopez is setting himself up for a downfall. Lopez had a horrible bb% of 3.7% (walk rate) and a miniscule OBP of .303 last year. He has a decent average of .272 and those 25 homeruns look good, but that came with a league low among active 2B with a 35.8% O-Swing% (percent of pitches swung that were outside the strike zone). He also was 2nd only to Brandon Phillips with a 64.3% F-Strike% (First pitch strike percentage.) He is a free swinger that the numbers say won’t last. Lopez has been in many trade rumors in the offseason. Even local beat writer Geoff Baker has said he doubts that Lopez will be a Mariner at the start of the season. With last year’s #1 round draft pick, Dustin Ackley being moved to second base in the Arizona Fall League, it seems like Lopez’s days are numbered in Seattle.

Pat Mayo

I hate to say it because I truly love the guy, but steer clear of Aaron Hill. Because of the shallow talent pool at second base Hill has become a very hot commodity. And why not? The Blue Jays’ second baseman had a charge in his bat last season, clobbering his way to 36 HR and 108 RBI. No way that happens again. Hill is going off draft boards anywhere from the third to fifth round — don’t pay for one great season.

Fred Zinkie

Many people are picking Aaron Hill as a potential bust for 2010 but I think that out of the two breakout 2B in 2009, Ben Zobrist has more bust potential.  I think he will be a solid player but I don’t see him as a top 50 draft pick.  His power came from an elevated HR/F% in the first half of 2009 and in the second half he showed his true colors in that area.  His H% also skyrocketed in 2009 from his previous career norms so there should be some regression in that area in 2010 too.  I’m not paying for anything close to a repeat of last year.

Jeremy Tiermini

I was all set to list Robinson Cano as my bust for 2010, then I read this article: http://www.theyankeeu.com/2010/02/why-does-cano-fail-in-the-clutch-14717.  Once I read that, I wasn’t as convinced that Cano was the choice here, so I am going with my second choice: Ben Zobrist. It took Zobrist three years to get his full-time shot and when he did get it he certainly took advantage of it with a solid 2009; the Rays traded Aki Iwamura to clear the everyday 2B spot for Zobrist.  A closer look at his stats show that he was better in the first half, when pitchers were not familiar with him.  After the All-Star Break his OBP, slugging, and HR all went down, despite more ABs; Zobrist now has to prove he can adjust to the rest of the league.  Tampa seems to be in a state of flux again, as the Carl Crawford rumors are starting to swirl.  BJ Upton has also struggled, so there is some doubt with the Rays’ offense.  With these factors, and with only one solid season under his belt, I don’t trust Zobrist’s track record.  I think he will be productive but I do think he falls out of the top-10 for 2B rankings; look for .270, 18-20 HR, 80 runs, 85 RBI’s, and 8-10 SB.