Spring Training Notes

03/07/2010 6:11 AM -  Fred Zinkie

Injured Closers Everywhere
Joe Nathan had some tightness with his surgically repaired elbow on Saturday and was pulled from the game.  He and the team both said that it is not a concern right now.  I will take their word for it for now but if Nathan isn’t back on the mound by the end of the week then I will start downgrading him a little bit.  He said that elbow tightness is normal at this point in spring training but since he is coming off surgery it is a greater concern.
Octavio Dotel has some tightness in oblique and is behind schedule.  Pittsburgh has no other options for their closer, especially with Joel Hanrahan likely to start the year on the DL.  They said that they expect Dotel to be ready for opening day.  If he can stay off the DL this year he can save 30 games on a likely last place Pirates.
David Aardsma is another closer with a minor injury.  He had some knee pain this week but is supposed to be back on track and will pitch in games next week. He is secure in his role as Seattle’s closer.  Some people feel that he pitched way over his head last year and is due for a big letdown in 2010.  Either way, his knee shouldn’t be a factor in his performance during the season.  Experienced closer Chad Cordero seems to have put his injury problems behind him and is off to a good start in spring training.  If Aardsma were to falter……

Nobody Wants To DH
Hideki Matsui, Vlad Guerrero and Pat Burrell are all only eligible at the utility position this year.  All three players brought their gloves to spring training and all three plan to use them.  It’s hard to say if any of them will play enough games in the field to gain OF eligibility this year.  I would say yes to Guerrero, but not until midseason if your league requires ten games.  I would say no to Burrell and probably not to Matsui.  If your league requires just 3-5 games then they all could get their at some point.

Russell Martin Has MRI
I’m sensing big warning signs for Martin.  He had an MRI to determine the source of pain in his hip and groin area.  Manager Joe Torre said that he is concerned.  Martin screams “bust” to me this year.  Let’s see – catcher carries too heavy of a workload for a couple years.  Then, catcher loses his power.  Then, catcher comes to camp significantly heavier in an effort to regain his power – seemingly completely oblivious to the fact that spending hours per day in a squat position could be harder on his lower body now that he weighs more.  And finally, catcher has lower body injuries.  I’m expecting at least one DL trip for Martin this year.
** 5pm Sunday update – Martin has a pulled groin and will miss 4-6 weeks.  I think he will be on the DL for most of April once you factor in a rehab assignment.  I would say that 400 at-bats is a pretty favorable prediction for him right now.  He is heavier this year and the chance of the injury bothering him more than once this year is high, especially when you factor in his position.

Nick Johnson Hurt Already
New team, new league, same Nick Johnson.  He has some back soreness and will miss a few days.  It isn’t a big deal in the grand scheme of things.  But, it is a reminder that you shouldn’t get too optimistic on Johnson and predict 500 at-bats.  He just doesn’t reach that total – something always gets in the way.  I do believe that being a DH will be good for his health, but a prediction of 450 at-bats is more reasonable.  Even that could be optimistic.  He has the upside to produce big numbers if he is batting second in New York but you need to have a replacement ready for him.  I like him as a late round pick in shallow leagues because he can be easily replaced.  I don’t like him in AL-Only leagues, where he will cost a mid-round pick and can’t really be replaced when he spends time on the DL.

Rangers Rotation Race Heats Up
Matt Harrison and Brandon McCarthy have reportedly been among the best pitchers in Texas’ camp.  But, both pitchers started the spring with their work cut out for them in terms of winning a rotation spot.  The Rangers have too many young, serviceable pitchers right now – a problem they haven’t had in a long time.  I predict that their pitching depth will push C.J. Wilson and Neftali Feliz back to the bullpen and Derek Holland to Triple-A to start the season.  I like all three of those pitchers better than Harrision, McCarthy or Tommy Hunter but I think two of those three guys will find rotation spots.  Holland’s sprained knee gives the team the perfect excuse to start him in Triple-A, manage his innings and then call him up a month into the season to replace their least effective April starter.  I don’t like Harrision, Hunter or McCarthy in mixed leagues but I wouldn’t mind spending a late round pick on Feliz or Holland in 15-team formats.

Ian Desmond Gives Nats Reason To Ponder
Maybe Washington shouldn’t have signed Adam Kennedy, but they did.  That signing pushed Cristian Guzman to SS and probably pushed Desmond to Triple-A.  The problem is that Desmond is hitting better than any other Nationals player so far this spring.  There is a part of their management that would like to see him start the year in Washington and they have even toyed with the idea of playing him at five different positions so that he can play four or five games per week.  But, saner wisdom says that you don’t mess with your long-term SS solution by having him play all those positions, especially when your team isn’t ready to compete for a playoff spot.  I think that Desmond will start the year in Triple-A and will be called up at some point before the all-star break.  When he arrives, it will be to play everyday.  He could push Guzman and Kennedy into a platoon at 2B at that point.

Jose Reyes Has Hyperactive Thyroid
The Mets’ curse seems to be spilling over to a second season.  First it was Carlos Beltran and his pre-spring training knee surgery.  Then it was Kelvim Escobar, who went from setup man to DL candidate in about a week.  Now it is Reyes and his problems could be more serious.  A hyperactive thyroid is more of a health-related issue than a purely baseball issue but the problem can affect someone’s energy level and weight gain so it is a consideration for his performance.  Right now there are just too many reasons to say no to Reyes anywhere in the first 30 picks of a draft.  I think he is worth the risk around pick 40.  He could get healthy in the next week or two and surge back up draft lists but I just can’t look at any Met optimistically right now.  Maybe New York will turn it around but I see a second disappointing season coming before the team cleans house and starts fresh in 2011.

Brandon Webb Could Start Year On DL
At first, the reports on Webb’s spring training were all positive.  This week we were hit with our first dose of cold water.  Webb said that he is not progressing as quickly has he had hoped.  It seems that his velocity needs to improve before he will be ready for live batters.  The team has said that they don’t know if he will start the year in the rotation or on the DL.  I am guessing DL right now.  They won’t push him and risk losing him for another year.  This would be a real killer for Arizona, since they don’t have the SP depth to replace him for too long.  I am going to predict that Webb makes his first regular season start shortly before the end of April.

Sean Rodriguez – Three Games, Three Homers
Rodriguez might not win the 2B job in Tampa Bay but he is certainly earning a spot right now.  He homered in his first three spring training games and that is not a fluke.  He showed plenty of power in the minor leagues last year and is now trying to carry that into the majors.  The key for Rodriguez will be to continue his power outburst for the rest of March.  Right now he is facing many pitchers that won’t make their respective teams.  Those are Triple-A pitchers, or to put it another way – the same pitchers he had success against last year.  As rosters get smaller and smaller and he starts to face quality pitchers every time up, we will get a better idea of his skills.  While he has power he also has the ability to strike out a lot.  Right now he has the lead for a regular job but if he starts racking up K’s then the team might look to Matt Joyce, Gabe Kapler and Reid Brignac.

Chrs Getz Has Upper Hand
The Royals have a tough choice at 2B.  Alberto Callaspo was one of their best hitters last year.  But, they traded for Getz for a reason.  When manager Trey Hillman described what he wants in a 2B, he pretty much described the areas that Getz is better than Callaspo.  He wants range in the field and speed on the basepaths.  It looks like the writing is on the wall for Callaspo.  Getz will likely be their regular 2B while Callaspo will play 3B and 2B when the team faces left-handers.  Callaspo also hits well enough to DH sometimes.  The Royals have a lot of low batting average players in their lineup so they could use Callaspo’s ability to get on base.  Getz is a late-round mixed league pick but might not be worth owning in 10-team leagues.  Callaspo is a late round AL-Only pick and he is decent in that spot because he could return better than expected value if he can get more playing time.

Edwin Encarnacion Still Can’t Play
Encarnacion originally had the look of a good value pick for 2010.  Most people had given up on him but in Toronto they have no one else to play 3B on a full-time basis as long as they choose to keep Jose Bautista in the OF.  So, Encarnacion at age 27 will get a chance to regain the 25 homer status that he had earlier in his career.  But, his off-season wrist surgery puts a damper on my optimism.  His wrist still isn’t ready to face opposing pitchers and he won’t be ready for a few more days.  Does that sound like a player that is going to be powerful enough to hit 25 home runs this year?  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him hit for less power in the early going and maybe pick it up in the second half or in 2011, if he still has a job.  That’s not the profile I am looking for in a mixed league pick.

Indians Down To Three For Two Spots
Jeremy Sowers’ shoulder injury will result in him starting the year on the DL or in Triple-A.  That leaves Mitch Talbot, David Huff and Aaron Laffey battling for the last two rotation spots.  That is one of the least interesting battles of spring training in my opinion because none of those players present any mixed league excitement.  However, all of them should be owned in AL-Only leagues.  The loser of the battle could be in Cleveland’s rotation by the end of April.  The Indians are surely shaping up to have the worst rotation in baseball this year so it’s likely that Talbot, Laffey, Huff and Sowers will all make anywhere from 15-30 starts.  When you look at the state of their rotation, it makes the decision to sign Russell Branyan and block either Matt LaPorta or Michael Brantley seem all the more puzzling.  It’s nice for Cleveland that they have the Royals in the division to break their fall!

Chris B. Young Off To Better Start
Young’s 2008 season was bad and his 2009 season was even worse.  But, he presents an interesting resume as a 2010 sleeper.  He can hit for power.  He can steal bases.  What he couldn’t do during 2008 and 2009 is get on base often enough.  He did better in that area in September and he is off to a good start this spring.  Maybe he has matured as a hitter or maybe not but while the other owners in your league are chasing 22 year olds in the late rounds you could go in the other direction and try for a bounceback year from a player who was as high as a third and fourth round pick just a couple years ago.