Spring Training Notes – March 10th

03/10/2010 3:44 PM -  Fred Zinkie

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Joe Nathan Gets Bad, Bad News
The news couldn’t get much worse on Nathan’s elbow.  He will shut it down for a couple weeks and try to start throwing again.  If he still feels pain then Tommy John surgery becomes a prominent option.  Right now, you have to assume that he won’t pitch in 2010.  You can use a late-round pick in your drafts on him as a gamble on his health and if he can pitch then you get a steal.  If he can’t pitch, you just cut him and didn’t lose much.  The million dollar question now becomes – who will close for the Twins?  The most likely candidates right now are Matt Guerrier and Jon Rauch.  Guerrier was the best middle reliever on the Twins last year but Rauch is the one with the most closing experience.  I might give a slight advantage to Rauch right now, but to be honest I am not basing that on much.  I will keep my ear to the ground by reading the local papers daily and when I know, you will know!

Albert Pujols Has Back Pain
Pujols is going to miss at least two games because of back pain.  This isn’t a situation that I would worry about yet.  Pujols is the best hitter in baseball and if I drafted tonight (which I do) and I had the first pick (which I don’t) I would take him without hesitation.  This is likely a veteran team being careful with a veteran player since the important games are still a few weeks away.

Manny Parra Shows Improved Control
Parra threw three shutout innings on Monday and more importantly, he only walked one batter.  He has always had the ability to strike batters out but his tendency towards walks sapped his fantasy value and made him useless to the Brewers too.  He has a fresh start this year and I think the Brewers would like to see him win a rotation spot in spring training.  If he has one or two more solid spring performances then I think he is a decent post-hype player to take a chance on late in drafts in deeper formats.  A late-round pick can’t hurt you too much if he can’t maintain control in the regular season since you can just cut him.

Aroldis Chapman Delights The Radar Gun
If radar guns had feelings, their new best friend would be Aroldis Chapman!  He was routinely around 100mph in his first spring start while he pitched two shutout innings.  His first inning was a little inconsistent but that is nitpicking at this point.  Chapman will have to pitch just as well in his next two or three starts to force the Reds to truly consider bringing him north with them at the end of spring training.  I think it could happen but you just can’t predict that right now.  The safe prediction is that he spends at least a couple months in Triple-A before coming up for good.  But, Jason Heyward is currently showing us what a dominating spring performance can force a team to do so don’t write off Chapman for April just yet.

The Legend Of Jason Heyward Continues
And speaking of Heyward…..is there anything this guy can’t do!?  He hit his first home run of the spring on Monday (with all the hype around him you would swear that he has already hit ten of them) and of course it was a tape measure shot, at an estimated distance of 420 feet.  I’m not the first to say this, but I will jump on board and say that Heyward has already locked up the RF job in Atlanta.  He would have to be a disaster the rest of the way to lose it and that won’t happen.  Things can still change, but it’s time to project 500 at-bats.  His emergence makes the acquisition of Melky Cabrera seem even more foolish.  Cabrera will get the majority of starts in LF but he is a worse hitter than Matt Diaz and no better of a player overall.  Atlanta should have targeted a young, talented 1B in the Javier Vazquez trade.  There is a decent chance that my mid-season Troy Glaus will be hobbling, Atlanta will have a hole at 1B and will have too many decent outfielders.

Stephen Strasburg Debuted Too
Yesterday it was Strasburg’s chance to wow scouts and he didn’t disappoint.  He pitched two scoreless frames and looked like the dominant pitcher he was advertised to be.  He struck out Miguel Cabrera, which was the highlight of the performance.  There is still a long road to go down before he opens the season with Washington.  I still think he will start the year in Triple-A but I have to admit that if he records four or five excellent outings in March then he will make it hard for the team to send him down and deny their excited fans a chance to see him pitch in April.  He is worth a late-round mixed league pick but owners will need to know that they have room to hold him on the bench for a couple months is necessary.

Baltimore Worries About Brian Roberts
Roberts’ back is still bothering him and the Orioles are starting to worry that he won’t be ready for opening day.  I think it is time for fantasy owners to drop him down on draft lists.  I resisted for a while but I would dock him about 50 at-bats right now.  That is the minimum that he would lose if he has a stay on the DL this year, which seems quite possible that this point.  If you like to play things conservative, dock him 100 at-bats.

Hank Blalock Signs With Rays
This signing isn’t really good for anyone in my opinion.  Blalock is a lefty bat off the bench and is insurance for Pat Burrell, in case he stinks again this year.  I think Burrell will get the majority of at-bats at the DH spot in April, mostly because the team would like to see him earn some of the contract they signed him to last year.  But, his margin for error is smaller now and I have already reduced his projected at-bat total by about 50.  Blalock also serves as insurance in case Carlos Pena gets injured – something that has been known to happen once in a while.  Blalock doesn’t have any mixed league value in this reserve role and coming off a poor season.  He can be taken late in AL-Only leagues, mostly because everyone with a pulse other than John McDonald can be taken late in AL-Only leagues!

Alfredo Aceves Throws His Hat In The Ring
I still think New York will choose Chamberlain or Hughes for the rotation (I am betting on Chamberlain right now) but Aceves has been their best candidate this spring and is giving them something to think about.  He threw four scoreless innings on Monday and looked so crisp on the mound.  I think he will lose out because the Yankees will want to develop one of the talented youngsters into a long-term useful starter for their rotation.  Aceves is older and just can’t match their potential.  He will slide back into his long-relief role – a role that made him very valuable last year.  He has pitched well enough to warrant a last round pick in 15 team mixed leagues.  You can always use him as an extra reliever in week one depending on the health of your starters or you can just cut him at the start of the season if he doesn’t make the rotation.  But if he were to make the rotation……..

Max Scherzer, Jeremy Bonderman Both Struggle
The Tigers rode surprising first half pitching to a share of the division title after 162 games last year.  This year might be a different story.  Scherzer and Bonderman were both really back in the last week.  Not just really bad – “rethink where you have me ranked for your fantasy draft” bad.  I never really like Bonderman as a mixed league pick.  His WHIP wasn’t great even when he was healthy and he is coming off serious injury.  He is bigger name than value right now.  Scherzer is still a mixed league pick and not a bad one either.  He has plenty of potential.  But, you have to have some concern on how a young pitcher will adjust to a new catcher, new staff and especially on moving to the AL.  The problem with Scherzer is that it takes a mid-round pick to get him.  That means that he needs to provide innings for you.  I would like him a lot more a few rounds later so I think I will let someone else own him in 2010.

Russell Martin Out For A While
If you have been reading Spring Training Notes for the last two weeks then you already know that I didn’t like Martin’s “I’m going to get fatter so that I can hit more home runs” plan.  And sure enough, the added weight put more pressure on his lower body and he is out of the lineup for 4-6 weeks.  The Dodgers say that they are willing to use their veterans to replace him while he is out.  I personally predict that he misses almost all of April.  I think it will be mid-April before he is ready for game action and since the injury occurred so early in the spring, he will surely need a minor league rehab stint to work on his catching and his swing.  The best thing the Dodgers could do is put him on a diet during the next four weeks!

Alex Gordon Questionable For Opening Day
Gordon’s long and winding path to stardom has taken another detour.  This time, a broken thumb will sideline him for close to a month.  I doubt that he will be ready for the start of the season.  In the same boat as Martin, Gordon got in so little work in spring training that he will definitely need some minor league games to be ready for meaningful action.  Fantasy owners who were hoping for a breakout from Gordon are disappointed, but shouldn’t give up yet.  The good news on the injury is that you can now draft him several rounds later, meaning that you have less riding on him.  Find a replacement for the first couple weeks of the season and then plug him in after that.  In a weird way, this injury might have made me more interested in drafting Gordon, if I can get him late enough.

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