The Rich Get Richer

12/22/2009 11:41 AM -  Fred Zinkie

December 22, 2009
By: Fred Zinkie

The rich get richer!  Adding Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson would have been a good off-season for most teams but for the Yankees it was only a warm-up.  The rotation “only” had three established starters but now they have four after New York made a great deal to acquire Javier Vazquez.  The Yankees did it without dealing Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain or Jesus Montero, all of whom were mentioned in trade talks for Roy Halladay.  While we all wonder is Atlanta really got enough Vazquez, let’s break down the fantasy values that were affected by this deal.

Javier Vazquez – He is one of the only players in baseball who could actually lose fantasy value by getting traded to New York.  Vazquez has always fared much better in the NL.  In his last five NL seasons he has kept his ERA under 4.00 four times.  In four seasons in the AL he has had an ERA under 4.50 just once.  Also, the worst season he had in the last ten years was his only season with the Yankees.  Add in the switch from Atlanta’s spacious park to the new launching pad in the Bronx and you can see why his 2.87 ERA from 2009 is sure to rise.  He could win more games with New York’s offense behind him but overall his numbers would have likely been better in Atlanta.

Melky Cabrera – He was set to battle Brett Gardner for time in New York but his long-term options aren’t that much better in Atlanta.  The Braves will use Nate McLouth in one OF spot and likely Matt Diaz in another.  That gives Cabrera a pretty clear shot at a starting role for opening day.  That is the good news.  The bad news is that Atlanta has OF prospects that are just about major league ready.  Jason Heyward is one of the best OF prospects in baseball and could be ready by the middle of the year.  They also have Jordan Schafer, who wasn’t quite ready last year but should get another chance soon.  Cabrera will play full-time for the first half of 2010 but will need to perform well to play everyday in the second half of the year.  He is a decent hitter but just doesn’t offer the offensive upside of the other players.  If he couldn’t succeed offensively in New York, it is hard to imagine it happening in Atlanta.

Matt Diaz – He had a career year last year and should be a starting OF for Atlanta in April.  But, Cabrera’s arrival increases Atlanta’s depth and he will have all the same youngsters that threaten Cabrera nipping at his heals too.  He is now less of a lock to reach 500 at-bats in 2010.  The sleeper value is still there, though.

Brett Gardner – For now, he is the player that benefits most from this deal.  If New York doesn’t add another outfielder he can play CF most days – especially against all right-handers.  If he could reach 500 at-bats he could steal 40-50 bases.  Don’t bank on that happening just yet.  Some of the best free agent outfielders are still available.  New York could make a big splash and sign Matt Holliday or Jason Bay.  They could also revisit Johnny Damon and play Curtis Granderson in CF.  The Yankees rarely settle, and playing Gardner everyday in 2010 would be settling.

Kenshin Kawakami – He finished 2009 in the bullpen but Atlanta said all along that he would be in their 2010 rotation.  This deal opens up a spot for him.  The Braves still have one of the best rotations in the NL but the lack of a power hitter in the middle of their lineup is a problem.  They need to find that player when signing a first baseman if they are going to have a chance to make the playoffs in 2010.