Third Base Busts

03/11/2010 4:29 AM - 

Fantasybaseball.com defines a “bust” as a player who will not produce the statistics that match his average draft position.  You will find many veterans on this list that are testing the patience of Father Time.  The third base position is getting older and not necessarily getting better.

Mark Schruender

Chipper Jones. No reason to take him in the top 150 picks of any draft anymore. He’s automatically going to be on the disabled list at some point and even worse he’s going to have several of those injuries where he needs consecutive days off and he can’t be placed on any DL. On top of that last year he stopped hitting well when he was playing cause even when he was playing he was playing hurt.

Ed Lilly

Pedro Feliz hit .244 in the 2^nd half last year. He has been in slow decline for the past four years. At one point he offered power but no longer. His great glove and no hit will hurt. No longer in Citizens Bank Park expect power to take a hit.

Eric Homola

Alex Rodriguez, yup Mr. $30 million dollar man will not live up to his contract and ADP. He batted a weak .260 at the new stadium, he did hit 18 homeruns there, but only batted .265 with runners in scoring position. I believe that he won his World Series ring and he will start the year in a bad way, he will recover by mid year to make his numbers to look decent, but not worth the number 3 draft spot.

Pat Mayo

If Mark Reynolds wasn’t the fantasy MVP last year, he was certainly a finalist for the award. Always known for his untapped power, Reynolds finally put it all together in 2009 with a monstrous season. I have trouble believing he’ll post the same kind of gaudy numbers (.260-44-102-98-24) again in 2010, but he should be useful nonetheless. Reynolds trended down towards the end of the season, posting only 8 HR and 3 SB after August 17th, which leads me to believe the speed numbers may have been an aberration. He’ll still be an excellent source of power from your corner position, but remember, a lot of his value is predicated in his speed numbers, which he’ll have trouble replicating. He’s going to be slightly overrated coming into the year, so avoid the temptation of blowing a top pick on him. Don’t pay for one huge season when there are other, more proven players that you can nab for better value.

Fred Zinkie

I’ve never been a big Chipper Jones guy in fantasy leagues.  I like him as a baseball player but he hasn’t racked up enough at-bats in recent years to support his draft status in my opinion.  Last year we finally saw a decrease in his skills and I don’t think they are coming back.  Combine a permanent decrease in skills and a spotty injury history and I just don’t have a lot of faith in Jones as a 3B option in mixed leagues this year.  The downside on him is 350 at-bats and 12 home runs and the upside of 500+ at-bats just doesn’t seem reasonable to me.

Jeremy Tiermini

I am invested in this player in my keeper league, but I just don’t trust him anymore.  David Wright is the 2010 bust at 3B.  Everyone is familiar with Citi Field and how it impacted the Mets offense.  Wright’s stats are more disturbing, though, since they suggest that the new park wasn’t the only issue..  His walks fell by 20, he struck out 22 times more than he did in 2008, and he only hit 5 of his 10 HR on the road; his 239 total bases were the lowest since his rookie season.  The Mets lineup is just not that impressive, especially with Beltran out until at least May (I suspect he will be out longer) and Wright has a history of trying to do too much.  Without the power, he is a .300 hitter that might steal 20-25 bases.  With the Mets lineup I only see him getting 10-15 HR, 75 runs and 70 RBI’s.  He is a risky pick because he could rebound, but I just don’t trust anything about Wright this year.