Third Base Draft Day Bargains

03/08/2010 5:00 AM - 

Fantasybaseball.com defines a “bargain” as a player that has the potential to significantly outperform his Average Draft Position.  The weaker sister of the corner infield positions, third base sometimes leaves fantasy owners scratching their heads on draft day.  If you don’t get an elite third baseman you might want to choose one of the bargains listed below.

Mark Schruender

Gordon Beckham. He’ll be a sleeper at second too, but since he doesn’t have eligibility in most formats there let’s stick him under the third base label. As good a breakout candidate as there is 2010 after being virtually unheard of after his sophomore year at the University of Georgia.

Ed Lilly

Alex Rodriguez may not a bargain in the true definition of the word but he will score more runs, hit more home runs, drive in more runs and hit for a higher average than last year. He is injury free and has had an off-season to get stronger. You will not go wrong with him.

Eric Homola

Johnny Peralta is an interesting sleeper pick for 3B, but I do like him better if your league still has him as a SS. It seemed like Peralta last year lost his power stroke, instead of hitting a projected 20+ hr, he only hit 11 and his average dropped 22 points from the year before. I believe an elbow injury suffered in April of last year, got him to change his swing. His GB% of 50.2% (Ground Ball %) was a lot higher than his career 40.6% GB%. So he was hitting more ball into the ground, I think he could turn this around. Peralta was 10th in RBI’s among 3B with 83 last year, due to batting behind Grady Sizemore. So if he improves his hitting, the rewards should be immediate.

Adrian Beltre is the biggest sleeper for 3B. His numbers have been suppressed for years now with injuries and playing in Seattle. Elbow, shoulder, and a um a nether region injury has hampered his power over the years. By signing in Boston and being healthy for the first time in years, he should excel in Fenway. He is a pull ball line drive hitter, so his batting average and power numbers should rise. He is now surrounded by a much better lineup. If you take his 3 year away batting average, he is a .287 hitter. The biggest knack against Beltre is that he loves to swing at bad pitches, his O-Swing% (percentage of pitches swung at that were outside the strike zone) was horrible 36.8% (Top 5 worst among 3B.)  Beltre is being drafted around the 20th round at this time, which makes him a good back up 3B for any fantasy team.

Pat Mayo

The devil wears Prado in Fire City as Atlanta super-sub Martin Prado will have the chance to play everyday in 2010. He’ll start at second base with Kelly Johnson now in Arizona, but will retain his third base & first base eligibility for the 2010 season. Prado is currently going towards the end of drafts, if he’s going at all, and should provide a quality line in the neighborhood of .300- 80 R-18 HR-80 RBI. With the shallow talent pool at 3B, Prado can fill in across the infield if injuries occur and be an excellent CI or MI starter for the season. He’ll easily out produce the last round pick or $1 you’ll spend to obtain his services.

Chris “Big Dawg” McDonnell
Andy LaRoche, once a highly-touted prospect in the Dodger’s organization was traded to the Pirates in 2008 as part of the Manny Ramirez three team trade.  He got off to a sluggish start in 2009, but picked up his production once his older brother Adam was traded out of town.

Fred Zinkie

Edwin Encacnacion’s numbers completely regressed last year.  He was completely useless in Cincinnati and wasn’t great in Toronto either.  But, I think it is a little too early to give up on him.  His power is still there.  He hit 26 home runs in 2008 and his 12 in the second half of 2009.  Toronto is a solid park for power hitters and they expect to play Encarnacion almost everyday.  With 500-550 at-bats I think he can still hit 20+ home runs and he might be able to exceed 25.  His H% has been very low in the past two years and if it normalizes he could carry a .265+ average too.  That makes him worth late round consideration in mixed leagues.  The big worry with Encarnacion is how he will bounce back from off-season wrist surgery.  But, if you invest a late round pick on him it’s easy to cut him if you don’t like what you see in April.

Jeremy Tiermini

The hot corner is another position that does not have much depth for fantasy players.  Mention this guy’s injury history and talk about how he dislocated his left shoulder in 2009, then try to steal Aramis Ramirez in the later rounds.  Now 31, his age and injury history are legitimate concerns, but you aren’t drafting him as a top-10 3B.  If you can’t get one of the top guys, make sure you keep him on your radar in the middle rounds since there won’t be many more 3B with 30-HR power after he is taken.  If he stays healthy for an entire season I see him hitting .295-.300, with 30 HR’s, 90 runs and 120 RBI’s.