Who To Target – Rounds 10-12

03/07/2010 5:25 PM -  Lane Rizzardini

Who to Target/Avoid: Rounds 10-12

Here marks the beginning of quite possibly the most important part of your draft and the reason you want to get a few mock drafts under your belt before game time. Everyone knows who to pick in the first five rounds, and there are a lot less misses. But now that you’ve filled some spots in the starting roster, it’s time to start identifying specific players even more so than at the beginning. You should go over the ADP report at Mock Draft Central and identify a player for each round that you like, pretty much what we’ve been doing this entire time. The difference is here your ability to predict the future becomes hugely important, as you will be trying to identify guys who are going to break out for their first big year. Now you separate the men from the boys. All the hard work you put into researching during the preseason will really pay off starting at this point. So let’s get psychic people.

Round 10

Target: Jose Lopez. ADP: 122.62

My first reaction to the Chone Figgens trade was: “Ahhhh!!!! Whose batting third for the Mariners?!?!?” While I’ve seen Franklin Gutierrez in the three spot in some places and Milton Bradley manning the spot so far in spring training, I think Lopez will end up batting there behind the massive on-base percentages of Ichiro and Figgens. My dyslexic Aunt Sheila could hit 80 RBIs with that many scoring opportunities. Plus his power numbers improved without an abnormally high HR/FB ratio. His batting average went down but so did his BaBIP so I’m expecting something more like a .290 average next year. Combine that with over 20 home runs and 100 RBIs and you got yourself a great value in the 10^th round.

Avoid: Alex Rios. ADP: 119.42

Alex Rios is one of those guys that just isn’t really good at baseball anymore, and for some reason his trade to the White Sox amplified that. After putting up very mediocre stats in Toronto the first 108 games of the season (52/14/64/.268), he was moved to the windy city and proceeded to bat an unbelievable .199 and record only nine RBIs in 146 at bats. Aunt Sheila could definitely bat .199. Some are predicting a rebound and I don’t completely doubt that, but his declining batting average and run totals are not worth the risk considering his current track record with his new ball club.

Round 11

Target: Ian Stewart. ADP: 125.72

Ian Stewart has a lot of intangibles going for him. His 2^nd and 3^rd base eligibility is extremely enticing this far into the draft, as well as his home dugout at Coors Field. He could be this season’s Mark Reynolds: high strikeout rate and tons of home runs. He won’t pick up as many stolen bases as Reynolds, though Stewart could put up 10 with more chances, and he will now that Garrett Atkins is gone and the 3^rd base spot is securely his. His .228 batting average is concerning, but with an assumed rise in BaBIP and more consistent at-bats I’m going to bet that will rise to at least .260, which will be fine when he gives you 35 home runs, along with 90 runs and RBIs each. I would have no problem with Stewart as my starting 2^nd basemen going into the season.

Avoid: Chipper Jones. ADP: 132.99

Chipper is yet another example of the wrong kind of player to draft: Guys who have hit their peak and will never get back to those numbers again. The only way to go is down. Yes he batted an obscene .364 just one year ago, but that came with a bloated .384 BaBIP. Last season it came down to Earth and so did his batting average, a full hundred points. Also consider he batted .335 for the first 48 games of the season. He gave you .233 for the rest. Even his HR/FB ratio indicates he’s lost his youthful luster, posting a single digit percentage for the first time in 12 seasons. I mean he’s 37 people, happens to the best of us, just don’t draft on the name. He’s not the MVP he once was.

Round 12

There are actually a lot of guys I like in this round, such as Miguel Montero and Huston Street as valuable later round options in scarce positions. But I’m going to go with one fewer people are talking about.

Target: Kurt Suzuki. ADP: 136.53

Having one of the best combinations of established numbers and lack of sexiness, Kurt Suzuki could be a great starting catcher to snag later in drafts. He doubled his HR/FB percentage and lowered his strike out percentage last season, leading to substantial jumps in all offensive categories while maintaining a .274 batting average despite a nasty drop in BaBIP. Basically, he’s getting better, and even if these are his peak numbers, I would take 74/15/88 out of a 12th round catcher any day. Plus he is among only three catchers projected to bat 3^rd in their respective line ups, Victor Martinez and Joe Mauer being the others. Good company. Draft him here with confidence.

Avoid: Carlos Marmol. ADP: 137.73

This may be reverse discrimination, but watching the heart attack on WGN every night has really fried my nerves. Don’t get me wrong, he’s absolutely electric and when he’s on he’s one of best pitchers in the majors. But he’s just as likely to throw four balls in a row as he is to throw three strikes. A 19.4% walk rate is absolutely unacceptable, no matter how high his strike out rate is. That many free base runners is just asking for trouble. Until he gets his control issues solved I’m staying far away.