Who To Target: Rounds 4-6

02/22/2010 6:57 AM -  Lane Rizzardini

An exciting week for baseball fans, as pitchers and catchers reported for duty and are throwing their first bullpen sessions. Johnny Damon was signed by the Tigers, so look for his ADP to rise from its current 126. We also learned that the DC Savior Stephen Strasburg will probably be starting 2010 in the minors, so we’re going to have to wait just a bit longer for his Saintliness to grace us with his skills. And none of this has anything to do with rounds 4-6 of your upcoming drafts, which includes a lot of strong pitching, three second basemen in one round, and the beginning of the first relief pitching rush. Again, we’re pretending this is a 12-team league with a basic 5×5 scoring system. All of this is based on the ADP Report over at Mock Draft Central.

If healthy, Morneau can produce great numbers in round three.

Round 4
Note on this round: three second basemen go here, so plan your draft strategy accordingly. if you want a top 5 second baseman, you’re probably going to have to take them here.
Target: Justin Morneau. ADP: 37.93
Morneau is one reason not to take a first baseman in the first or second round. The Minnesota Twin offers some of the safest value in the game, going over 100 RBIs and 85 runs the past four seasons. He also had over 30 bombs in three of those. His batting average is a bit tough to track because it directly correlates with his BaBIP that has fluctuated wildly during his good seasons, everywhere from .328 to .270. Count on him for at least a .285 average. All things considered you’re getting an extremely solid player at a very reasonable draft slot.  Just keep an eye on his back during spring training to make sure that it has completely recovered from his 2009 injury.

Avoid: Johan Santana. ADP: 45.48
I want to give him the Jose Reyes treatment and say draft him based on a lowered value due to an injury-stained season, but the numbers aren’t helping here. His strike out numbers are great and he has 2.50 ERA potential if he rebounds well, but there are concerns. Namely his WHIP, which has risen consistently for the past six seasons. This will inevitably lead to an increased ERA. He also hasn’t come even close to 20 wins since 2006. His career stats seem to indicate his best years are behind him, and you never want to draft someone on the decline.

Round 5
There are a lot of guys I like in this round, including Josh Hamilton and Cliff Lee. Though there may be more I’m nervous about, such as Kendry Morales and B.J. Upton. But I can only pick one each so…
Target: Curtis Granderson. ADP: 50.19
The first-year All Star put up 30 HRs and 20 steals to establish himself as a legitimate speed-power threat this season. So naturally the Yankees went and got him. Now he’s in a very hitter-friendly park with a stacked roster around him. I’m a little disappointed he’s only projected to bat 7th, but in that line up it doesn’t matter. His .249 average last season doesn’t make this call any easier, but its important to note he had a career low BABIP of .275, so that average should come up next season. He can only improve on his 2009 numbers so make sure you grab him in the 5th, maybe even last 4th round. I would be very happy with him as my #1 outfielder.

Avoid: Lance Berkman. ADP: 58.87
Lance Berkman is old and plays for a crappy ball club. He proved that last season by posting only 73 runs, 80 RBIs, and a .275 batting average a season after posting a 100/100/.312 in 2008. You say rebound? I say washed up. His numbers in ‘08 were buoyed by a ridiculous .341 BaBIP, and his 2007 stats look more like his 2009 stats, so I’m thinking he’ll be in range of those two years than 2008. On top of that, his OPS was the second lowest total of his career, and his SO% is the second highest its been since 2001. Remember: Choose young upside over a washed up veteran

Round 6
Here we see our first relievers come off the board, with Papelbon, Broxton, and Rivera the first three to go. My strategy with pitching revolves around taking one elite closer and one elite starter early and then filling in with young talent from there. So thus I’m targeting a relief pitcher here, and my favorite this season is…

His high strikeout rate separates Broxton from the other closers.

Target: Jonathan Broxton. ADP: 70.12
A night with The Broxbury nearly always ended quickly last season, as the young gun shut the door faster than a pissed off LA nightclub bouncer, with sideburns that let you know he means business. He had an obscene 114 strike outs which he tends to ring up using his 96 MPH fastball, putting him at 13.5 Ks/9 innings pitched. He also posted a career low ERA and a sub one WHIP. Oh and I’ll take those seven wins too (though that shouldn’t be expected). He’ll have a full year of closing under his belt and a great offense to produce save chances for him, so he has every reason in the world to repeat or exceed his 2009 numbers.

Avoid: Carlos Lee. ADP: 69.90
Yes, I hate the Astros offense. Lee and Berkman are well known names and if this were 2003 then you might see these guys on the opposite end of my radar, but its not so they aren’t. Like Berkman, he’s past his prime and is being drafted too high based on past performance that was waaaaay in the past. He can’t steal bases anymore, his power numbers are declining, and his surrounding line up is kind of lame. Hitting behind Berkman has helped his RBI numbers tremendously, but with Berkman’s decline should come an RBI decline for Lee, who I’m betting will miss the 100 mark for the first time since 2004, his last season with the White Sox. Avoid Lee, avoid Berkman, avoid the Astros.

Rounds 7-10 next week. And I hope the rest of you tuned into that great US men’s hockey win over Canada. Ryan Miller was unbelievable. And I personally enjoyed Brian Rafalski’s second straight two-goal game, as I have him on my fantasy team and am hoping this will carry over to the rest of the NHL season. Enjoy your week.