Who To Target: Rounds 7-10

03/01/2010 5:49 AM -  Lane Rizzardini

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Report: Who to Target/Avoid Rounds 7-9

I’m still trying to shake off the pain from that huge gold medal hockey game. What a show. Just to add to the chorus and help drive the point home, Gary Bettman should be smacked for even considering not allowing NHL players to participate in the next Winter Olympics. The entire tournament was like an All Star game except the players actually tried.  I can say for certain that I watched more hockey over the past two weeks than I have the past two years. Of course I also watched more curling than I ever have in my entire life so that may not necessarily translate to future success, but for one of the few times in my memory the entire country was excited about hockey. I’m really curious to see how many Americans watched it. As far as Canada goes, you can pretty much assume whatever their population is is the number of people who tuned in. Congrats to Canada on your victory. But as my friend said after the game, “Fine, now go land on the moon.”

Probably the biggest winner in all of this is tournament MVP Ryan Miller, who will never have to buy a drink above the Mason-Dixon line ever again.

Oh yea, and there’s this baseball thing coming up soon. Yea I guess we can talk about that. Remember, we’re pretending this is a 12-team league with a basic 5×5 scoring system. All of this is based on the ADP Report over at Mock Draft Central.

Round 7

Target: Billy Butler. ADP: 85.95

While I’m not a fan of anyone on the Royals not named Greinke or nicknamed “The Mexicutioner” (My current favorite baseball nickname and second favorite sports nickname behind Megatron), Butler looks ready to break out this coming season. He batted .301 with 20 home runs and 93 RBIs in only his 3rd year, and at 24 has plenty of room to grow. He already has good plate discipline with a strike out percentage 3% lower than the major league average with a walk rate right at the average which bodes well for his continuing to hit at a .300 clip in the future. His BaBIP was a bit high, so I would project him more in the .290 range, but he should give you great value at first base if your draft strategy involves addressing scarce positions early.

Avoid: Alfonso Soriano. ADP: 79.73

I almost fell off my chair when I saw how low A-Sor(e) is being drafted. I wouldn’t draft him in the 11th round let alone the 7th. And it looks like some true-blue believer took him at pick 56. Ridiculous. If you take the time to do any sort of research, you would see that they add up to what you would call the opposite of upside. Probably downside. Gone are the days of 45 home runs and 40 steals. Home runs, runs, batting average, RBIs, steals, you name it, it’s on a three year slide that coincidentally started when he signed with the Cubs. Figures. This is the kind of player you should basically never draft because even if you get him at a good price he will have no trade value and just isn’t worth the headache.

Round 8

Target: Gordon Beckham. ADP: 89.85

Beckham is a popular sleeper for a lot of people and could be a real savior for those who missed out on a top 2nd or 3rd baseman. Right now he’s only eligible at third but he will be good at 2nd by the middle of April. In his first season he swatted 14 home runs and racked up 63 RBIs in only 378 at bats. Give him 550 at bats and you’re looking at a 90/22/90 guy who’ll chip in 13 stolen bases, and all his ratios indicate he can keep up the pace. Not bad in the 8th round from a shallow position. My favorite stat is his Extra Bases Taken Percentage, which is the percentage of times a player advances more than one base on a single, two on a double, etc. The league average is 39%. His is 65%. Think that might lead to some runs?

The problem is everyone knows this now. At the beginning of the month you could have gotten him in the 10th round, and while I’m saying I’m targeting him here because of his ADP, I’d still wait till round nine before swiping him. And if you’re in a league with White Sox fans forget about it, I’ve got a guy for you in round 11.

Avoid: Jake Peavy. ADP: 87.76

Sticking with the Sox, I am not very high on this former Cy Young winner. Three years removed from that monster season, he’s coming off an ankle injury that sidelined him for almost three full months. It will also be his first full season with the Sox, away from the comfy pitcher confines at Petco Park. His HR/FB ratio is too far below the league average (again, a product of Petco) and that will surely rise, ultimately resulting in more earned runs. If you’re looking for a steal with a forgotten injured stud pitcher I’d rather go with Brandon Webb or Ben Sheets later in the draft.

Round 9

The theme this round seems to be the “tale of two halfs”, as to evaluate these two players accurately the game log must be heavily analyzed.

Target: Ricky Nolasco. ADP: 108.4

Nolasco was supposed to break out last season. And he did… it just took an extra month or so, a trip to the minors and a lot of Advil for his owners before it actually happened. His first nine games were unspeakably bad, posting a 2-5 record with a nine ERA and only 37 strike outs in nine starts. Then they sent him to the minors and everyone dropped him. And then he came back and made everyone sorry they did. In his next 22 games he went 11-4 with a 3.82 ERA and 158 strike outs. His ERA would be much lower were it not for three bad starts of seven, seven, and ten runs during this stretch. I suppose that means he’s vulnerable to implosion but I’ll take that from someone who has the skills to post 16 strike outs in one game like he did in his last start of the season. I’m high on him like I was last season, only this time he should be able to maintain those second half numbers all year.

Avoid: Raul Ibanez. ADP: 94.87

The situation is the exact opposite with Ibanez. People were wondering how age and a new team would affect his numbers, and in response he smacked 19 home runs and 51 RBIs the first 50 games while batting a whooping .340. This is what we call a “sell high” point, because things get very different after that. In the last 83 games (after steroid allegations started to surface coincidentally) he only hit 15 home runs and recorded 42 RBIs while posted an embarrassing .224 average. That’s an unbelievable drop in production and something that should raise huge red flags for anyone thinking about drafting him. It’s enough for me to stay far, far away.

Go forth and conquer.